- 1 Charlotte Hornets vs Miami Heat: a rematch of the 127-126 play-in, with neither hero still in Charlotte
- 2 Charlotte Hornets: a 110-103 opening win built on Grayson Allen’s bench scoring and five Moussa Diabate steals
- 3 Miami Heat: 35 points from Antetokounmpo on debut, but only eight threes in a 131-106 defeat
- 4 Free NBA Prediction: Charlotte Hornets vs Miami Heat
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Charlotte Hornets vs Miami Heat: a rematch of the 127-126 play-in, with neither hero still in Charlotte 
The last time these teams met, LaMelo Ball scored a layup with 4.7 seconds left in overtime and Miles Bridges blocked Davion Mitchell at the buzzer. Charlotte won the April 14 play-in game 127-126 and Miami’s season was over. Ball now plays in Minnesota and Bridges in Phoenix, so Saturday’s rematch at Spectrum Center comes with very little of that night left on the Charlotte side.
Tip-off is at 6pm ET, and the schedule matters more than usual here. Both teams play at home on Friday: the Hornets against Atlanta at 7pm ET, the Heat against Detroit at 8pm ET. Miami then has to travel and play again less than 24 hours later, in an early evening slot.
The regular-season series went Miami’s way last year, three wins to one. The Heat won 144-117 on 28 October and 126-108 on 7 November, both at home, then 128-120 in Charlotte on 6 March. The Hornets took the last one, 136-106 on 17 March, before winning the play-in game that counted most.
Records from last season were almost identical. Charlotte finished 44-38 and ninth in the East, Miami 43-39 and tenth. Neither roster looks much like that version now: Miami traded for Giannis Antetokounmpo in the summer, while Charlotte replaced Ball’s creation with a group of new arrivals and is still waiting on its best young scorer.
No sportsbook had posted a line for this game when we checked, which is common for the second leg of a back-to-back before the Friday results are in. The scoring trends point in different directions: the Over has landed in four of the last five meetings, while the Under has hit in each of Charlotte’s last four games.
Charlotte Hornets: a 110-103 opening win built on Grayson Allen’s bench scoring and five Moussa Diabate steals 
Charlotte opened the season with a 110-103 win at Barclays Center on Wednesday. The Hornets started on an 18-4 run and Brooklyn didn’t lead until 63-62 late in the third quarter. Charlotte held on from there.
The scoring was spread out. Grayson Allen hit five threes and scored 21 off the bench, Naz Reid had 20 points, 11 rebounds and seven assists on his debut, and Dennis Schroder scored 19 with six assists, eight of his points in the fourth quarter. Moussa Diabate added 17 points, eight rebounds and five steals.
Brandon Miller’s night was the weak spot. He scored 18 but needed 21 shots, went 3 of 14 from three and turned it over three times. Charlotte took 51% of its shots from beyond the arc and made 15 of 48, a rate a better defence than Brooklyn’s would punish harder.
The injury list hasn’t shortened. Kon Knueppel, who averaged 18.5 points as a rookie, is out with a hamstring strain, Coby White has a calf problem, Grant Williams is also out with a hamstring injury, and Kylan Boswell was only targeting a late-October return from a knee issue. That leaves Schroder and Miller as the only real shot creators in the starting group.
Two trends favour the Hornets. Charlotte went 50-32 against the spread last season and is 5-1 ATS in its last six as a home underdog. The same team went 31-51 on totals, so its games have tended to finish below the number.
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Miami Heat: 35 points from Antetokounmpo on debut, but only eight threes in a 131-106 defeat 
Antetokounmpo’s first game in a Heat jersey went well for him. He scored 35 on 13-of-19 shooting against Minnesota on Wednesday, 21 of them before halftime. Miami still lost 131-106 at Kaseya Center.
The gap came from the perimeter. Anthony Edwards made nine threes on his way to 45 points, and Minnesota made 21 as a team against Miami’s eight. The Timberwolves also won the rebounding count 52-34 and led 69-59 at halftime after Miami had briefly been in front at 50-49.
Bam Adebayo scored 15 with seven rebounds and three steals, Davion Mitchell posted a double-double with 11 points and double-digit assists, and Klay Thompson made three threes for 10 points in his first game for the club. Erik Spoelstra said his team didn’t look like itself offensively. Antetokounmpo said the effort had to be better and that it started with him.
The availability picture is clean. Miami carried no significant injuries into Friday’s game against Detroit, and Myron Gardner, Vladislav Goldin and Dru Smith were all listed as available despite minor ankle and calf problems.
The Heat’s spacing is what we’d watch on Saturday. With Antetokounmpo and Adebayo working inside, Thompson, Andrew Wiggins and the rest of the shooters need to make Charlotte pay for helping, and eight threes from more than 30 attempts won’t do that. Miami is 6-1 to the Over in its last seven games as a favourite.
Probable lineup Charlotte Hornets: Dennis Schroder, Brandon Miller, Sion James, Naz Reid, Moussa Diabate
Probable lineup Miami Heat: Davion Mitchell, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bam Adebayo
Free NBA Prediction: Charlotte Hornets vs Miami Heat
Our prediction: Miami Heat to win
We’re siding with the team that has the best player on the floor and the fuller roster. Antetokounmpo shot 13 of 19 in his first game for Miami, and Charlotte’s frontcourt of Reid and Diabate gives up size and strength to him. The Hornets are also without four rotation players, including their leading returning scorer from last season.
The case against Miami is the schedule. The Heat play Detroit at home on Friday night and then tip off in Charlotte at 6pm the following evening. Charlotte is on a back-to-back too, though without the travel, and its offence depends heavily on threes from a group that made 31% of them in the opener.
Miami won three of the four regular-season meetings last year by an average of more than 16 points, and Wednesday’s defeat came against a better team than this Charlotte side. We expect the Heat’s half-court offence to settle around Antetokounmpo and for the visitors to win.
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