- 1 Washington Wizards vs Toronto Raptors: a 17-65 team at 1-0, hosting a Toronto team that forced 27 turnovers
- 2 Washington Wizards: Anthony Davis scored 34 on debut, and 70 points came in the paint
- 3 Toronto Raptors: three 23-point scorers, 15 steals and a rested roster
- 4 Free NBA Prediction: Washington Wizards vs Toronto Raptors
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
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Washington Wizards vs Toronto Raptors: a 17-65 team at 1-0, hosting a Toronto team that forced 27 turnovers 
Washington won 17 games last season and allowed 124.9 points a night, 29th in the league. After beating Milwaukee 128-116 on Wednesday, the Wizards have a winning record for the first time since 28 November 2022, and that’s the context for Friday’s game against Toronto at Capital One Arena, tip-off 7pm ET.
Toronto’s opener was even more emphatic. The Raptors beat Chicago 135-92 at Scotiabank Arena, forcing 27 turnovers, collecting 15 steals and leading by 25 at halftime. Kawhi Leonard, Immanuel Quickley and Scottie Barnes scored 23 each in Leonard’s first game back in a Raptors jersey.
The bookmakers have Toronto between 4.5 and 5.5 points, with the moneyline around 1.48 to 1.52 at most books and a total of 236.5. That total reflects both teams’ openers: Washington scored 77 points in the second half against Milwaukee, and Toronto put up 135.
The schedule tilts toward Toronto. Washington plays in Chicago on Saturday, so this is the first night of a back-to-back, while the Raptors don’t play again until Sunday in Minnesota. Washington also has three players out: No. 1 pick AJ Dybantsa with an ankle sprain, Tristan Vukcevic with a hip problem and Jamir Watkins with a torn ACL.
Toronto won last season’s series 2-1, including 134-125 in Washington on 28 February. The Raptors have covered in seven of the last ten meetings.
Washington Wizards: Anthony Davis scored 34 on debut, and 70 points came in the paint 
Anthony Davis arrived in Washington last season and never played a game for the Wizards. His debut on Wednesday explained why Brian Keefe has built the offence around him: 34 points and 12 rebounds on 11-of-20 shooting in 34 minutes, with Trae Young adding 20 points and 13 assists.
The way Washington won matters for Friday. The Wizards trailed 56-51 at halftime, then won the fourth quarter 38-23 behind a 21-2 run. They scored 70 points in the paint and went 32-of-41 from the free-throw line, which made up for a 6-of-28 night from three. Milwaukee’s Tyler Herro scored 24 and Jaime Jaquez Jr. added 22 in defeat.
That three-point number is the weak spot. A team that shoots 21% from deep has to win inside every night, and Toronto’s starting front line of Barnes, Leonard and Jakob Poeltl is a different proposition from a Milwaukee team still sorting out its rotation after the Giannis Antetokounmpo trade.
Dybantsa’s absence also shortens the wing rotation. Bilal Coulibaly started in his place against the Bucks and scored 11 with four steals, and Kyshawn George added 18. Keefe called Dybantsa day-to-day before the opener, but every injury report for Friday lists him as out.
The ATS record from last season isn’t flattering: 33-49 overall, and 27-42 as an underdog of 5.5 points or more. Washington has also failed to cover in eight of its last nine as an underdog.
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Toronto Raptors: three 23-point scorers, 15 steals and a rested roster 
Toronto finished 46-36 last season and took Cleveland to seven games in the first round. The summer move was Leonard, acquired from the Clippers for Brandon Ingram, Gradey Dick and draft picks in a trade that sat in limbo for weeks while the league investigated. He’s 35 and averaged a career-high 27.9 points last season.
His return was efficient rather than spectacular. Leonard scored 23 and went 11-of-11 from the line, while Quickley added 23 with seven assists and Barnes 23 with six rebounds. RJ Barrett scored 20 on 8-of-14, so four starters reached 20 points.
The defensive numbers stand out more than the scoring. Toronto forced 27 turnovers, made 15 steals and held Chicago to 31.8% shooting. Darko Rajakovic’s team led 43-23 after one quarter, and rookie Allen Graves, the No. 19 pick, blocked three shots in 19 minutes.
There’s one weakness to note. Toronto made only 10 of 31 threes, 32%, and the Raptors lost their last nine road games against Eastern teams with winning records. Washington is 1-0, which technically puts it in that group, though one game is a thin basis for the label.
The injury list holds only Nate Bittle, the backup centre, out with a foot problem. Toronto went 33-16 as a moneyline favourite last season and 14-11 ATS as a favourite of 5.5 or more.
Probable lineup Washington Wizards: Trae Young, Bilal Coulibaly, Kyshawn George, Anthony Davis, Alex Sarr (not confirmed)
Probable lineup Toronto Raptors: Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett, Kawhi Leonard, Scottie Barnes, Jakob Poeltl
Free NBA Prediction: Washington Wizards vs Toronto Raptors
Our prediction: Toronto Raptors -4.5 at 1.82
Washington’s win over Milwaukee came from Davis inside and 32 free throws, and it came against a team in its first game after losing Antetokounmpo. Toronto forced 27 turnovers on Wednesday, and a Wizards offence that shot 21% from three has little to fall back on if the paint gets crowded.
The schedule adds to it. Washington plays in Chicago on Saturday, Toronto has two days before its next game, and the Wizards are without the No. 1 pick. Young and Davis can still post big numbers, and a Davis night like Wednesday’s is the main risk to this pick.
I’m taking the Raptors -4.5 at 1.82. Four starters scored 20 or more in the opener, the defence created 15 steals, and a five-point margin is well within what this roster produced against Chicago.
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