- 1 Orlando Magic vs Minnesota Timberwolves: Edwards arrives with 45 points, Orlando with four players out
- 2 Orlando Magic: 35 from Banchero, 20 turnovers and a thin bench under a new coach
- 3 Minnesota Timberwolves: LaMelo Ball’s debut, 21 threes and a 52-34 rebounding win
- 4 Free NBA Prediction: Orlando Magic vs Minnesota Timberwolves
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
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Orlando Magic vs Minnesota Timberwolves: Edwards arrives with 45 points, Orlando with four players out 
Anthony Edwards scored 45 points in Miami on Wednesday, hitting 16 of 29 shots and nine threes, and Minnesota won 131-106. On Friday he takes that form to the Kia Center, where an Orlando team that lost its own opener to Atlanta will be without four players.
Tip-off is 7pm ET. The Wolves are 1.5-point favourites at most books, with the moneyline around 1.80 for Minnesota and 2.05 for Orlando, and a total of 237.5 that has moved between 235.5 and 239.5 depending on the book.
The injury report is what shapes this game more than anything else. Anthony Black, Jonathan Isaac, Noah Penda and Izaiyah Nelson are all listed out for Orlando, which removes a large share of the bench and most of the defensive length that made the Magic hard to score on in recent seasons. Minnesota’s only absence is Donte DiVincenzo, who is recovering from Achilles surgery.
History points the other way. Orlando won both meetings last season, 119-92 in Minneapolis on 7 March and 132-120 at home on 8 April, and Minnesota is 11-26 all-time in Orlando. That run was built against a different Wolves roster, though, one that still had Julius Randle and Naz Reid.
Neither team is on a back-to-back. Both played on Wednesday, so this is a straight comparison of two rosters on equal rest, and only one of them is close to full strength.
Orlando Magic: 35 from Banchero, 20 turnovers and a thin bench under a new coach 
Sean Sweeney took over from Jamahl Mosley in the summer, arriving from San Antonio’s staff, and his first night ended in a 132-125 home loss to Atlanta. The Magic led 100-99 after three quarters and lost the lead midway through the fourth, in a quarter that featured 11 lead changes.
Paolo Banchero gave Sweeney almost everything he could have asked for: 35 points on 10-of-12 shooting, 10 assists and seven rebounds in 41 minutes. Franz Wagner and Wendell Carter Jr. scored 22 each and Desmond Bane added 18. The offence created plenty, and the Magic shot 48% from the field.
The defence and ball security were the issue. Orlando turned it over 20 times, which led to 24 Atlanta points, gave up 60 points in the paint and 18 on the fast break, and missed nine free throws. Those numbers usually come from a team that’s still learning a new system, and a short rotation makes them harder to fix quickly.
That’s where the absences bite. Black was expected to lead the bench, Isaac has been the team’s best defensive forward when healthy, and Penda and Nelson won’t be back until mid-November. Banchero played 41 minutes on Wednesday, and Sweeney may need similar numbers from his starters again.
Orlando was a solid home team last season, 26-16 at the Kia Center on the way to a 45-37 record and the eighth seed. They were also 11-20 as underdogs and 37-45 against the spread, which says this group has tended to win when expected to and struggle when it isn’t.
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Minnesota Timberwolves: LaMelo Ball’s debut, 21 threes and a 52-34 rebounding win 
Minnesota rebuilt its backcourt in July. LaMelo Ball came from Charlotte in a four-team trade that sent Naz Reid to the Hornets and Randle to Brooklyn, and Jonathan Kuminga signed in August. Chris Finch, in his seventh season, started Ball, Edwards, Kuminga, Jaden McDaniels and Rudy Gobert in Miami.
It worked straight away. The Wolves hit 21 of 50 threes (42%), out-rebounded the Heat 52-34 and grabbed 17 offensive rebounds to Miami’s four. They led by 10 at halftime and by as many as 30 later on, after a second half in which Miami had no answer for the perimeter shooting.
Ball’s debut line was 21 points on 7-of-17, with five threes and six assists. McDaniels added 17 on 8-of-11 with eight rebounds and three steals, and Gobert took 15 rebounds. Edwards, with 21 points by halftime, was the reason the game was over early.
The rebounding margin matters for Friday. Orlando gave up 60 points in the paint to Atlanta, and Gobert against a frontcourt missing Isaac is a mismatch that Finch will go back to. Minnesota also forced 19 Miami turnovers, while Orlando gave the ball away 20 times on Wednesday.
Last season’s Wolves were 41-18 when favoured on the moneyline, though only 38-44 against the spread. This is the first of three road games in their first four, with Toronto at home on Sunday before a trip to Cleveland.
Probable lineup Orlando Magic: Jalen Suggs, Desmond Bane, Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero, Wendell Carter Jr. (not confirmed)
Probable lineup Minnesota Timberwolves: LaMelo Ball, Anthony Edwards, Jonathan Kuminga, Jaden McDaniels, Rudy Gobert
Free NBA Prediction: Orlando Magic vs Minnesota Timberwolves
Our prediction: Minnesota Timberwolves -1.5 at 1.87
A line of 1.5 points treats this as close to a coin flip, and I don’t think the rosters support that. Orlando is missing four rotation players, turned the ball over 20 times in its opener and gave up 60 points in the paint, while Minnesota won the rebounding count 52-34 in Miami and forced 19 turnovers.
Banchero can keep the Magic in the game, and the 2-0 head-to-head record from last season is the one fact against this pick. Both of those wins came against a Minnesota roster that has since lost Randle and Reid and added Ball and Kuminga.
The Wolves -1.5 at 1.87 is the pick. Minnesota only needs to win by two, and with Isaac and Nelson out, Gobert gets the same rebounding edge that produced a 52-34 count in Miami.
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