- 1 Barcelona vs Real Madrid: Vinícius banned, Barça beaten for the first time
- 2 Barcelona: 39 league goals in nine games and five fit senior defenders
- 3 Real Madrid: Mbappé on 11 goals, but no Vinícius and no Rodrygo
- 4 Free La Liga Prediction: Barcelona vs Real Madrid
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Barcelona vs Real Madrid: Vinícius banned, Barça beaten for the first time 
Vinícius Júnior won’t be at Camp Nou on Sunday. He was sent off against Villarreal on 10 October for pulling an opponent’s hair, and the four-match domestic ban that followed covers the Clásico.
It’s also José Mourinho’s first Clásico since he went back to the Bernabéu. His career record against Barcelona reads 17 games, five wins, six draws and six defeats, with 25 goals scored and 31 conceded. Kick-off is 20:00 UK time.
Barcelona are top with nine wins from nine, 39 goals scored and nine conceded. They’re the first side since Real Madrid in 1968 to win their opening nine La Liga games. Real Madrid are third on 21 points, six behind, and their only league defeat came 2-1 at Atlético on 20 September.
Tuesday night in Paris dented the run. Barcelona lost 4-2 to PSG, their first defeat of the season after 11 straight wins. They trailed at half-time for the first time this season and allowed ten shots on target before the break, their most in a Champions League first half since 2003-04.
The recent meetings have gone one way. Barcelona have won six of the last seven, including a 4-0 and a 5-2 at the Bernabéu, and the last league meeting at Camp Nou, on 10 May 2026, finished 2-0. Real Madrid’s one win in that spell was 2-1 at home on 26 October 2025.
Those seven games produced 33 goals. I’m not looking for a winner on Sunday. I’m looking at how many goals two leaky defences will give up.
Barcelona: 39 league goals in nine games and five fit senior defenders 
Hansi Flick’s side had scored 48 goals in 11 games across all competitions before they went to Paris. At home in the league they’ve won four from four, averaging five goals a game.
Raphinha has 14 goals in all competitions and returned against PSG after a hamstring problem. Lamine Yamal scored in the 10th minute of the 5-2 win at Betis on 17 October and again in the 79th minute at the Parc des Princes.
The trouble is at the back. Eric García has a thigh injury and the club expect him to miss three to four weeks. Andreas Christensen is out with a thigh problem, and Jules Koundé sprained an ankle. Flick said Koundé could play, but before Paris he had only five fit senior defenders to choose from.
Dani Olmo went off injured in the first half on Tuesday. Frenkie de Jong (knee) and Gabriel Jesus are also doubts, and Roony Bardghji is out with a cruciate ligament injury.
Barcelona kept one clean sheet in seven games before Paris, then conceded four. At home they’ve let in 1.25 goals a game in the league, even while scoring five.
I’d want a lot more than a patched-up back four before trusting them to keep Kylian Mbappé quiet.
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Real Madrid: Mbappé on 11 goals, but no Vinícius and no Rodrygo 
Kylian Mbappé has 11 goals in 11 appearances, nine of them in La Liga. He scored twice in the 4-1 win over Sevilla on 18 October, one of them a chipped penalty, with Arda Güler and Diomande getting the others.
Mourinho’s side won 4-3 in Rome in the Champions League on 14 October and beat Villarreal 1-0 four days earlier. They host RB Leipzig on Wednesday night, four days before the trip to Catalonia.
Away from home they’ve been far less tidy. Across their recent away games they’ve won two and lost two, scoring and conceding an average of two goals each time. They won 3-2 at Elche and lost 2-1 at Atlético.
The absences pile up in attack. Vinícius is banned, Rodrygo (knee) is injured, and Ferland Mendy (hip) and Raúl Asencio are also out. Éder Militão is listed as a hamstring doubt.
Without Vinícius, the expected shape puts Güler, Federico Valverde, Aurélien Tchouaméni, Jude Bellingham and Diomande behind Mbappé. That’s more midfield bodies, but Real Madrid conceded four at Barcelona in May 2025 and two there in May 2026.
Mbappé is priced at 1.96 to score anytime. He’ll face a Barcelona back line that Flick is still assembling from whoever’s fit.
Probable lineup Barcelona: J. García; Koundé, Paredes, Martín, Cancelo; Rodri, Pedri, Fermín; Yamal, Raphinha, Gordon (Koundé subject to a late fitness test)
Probable lineup Real Madrid: Courtois; Alexander-Arnold, Konaté, Huijsen, Cucurella; Güler, Valverde; Bellingham, Diomande, Tchouaméni; Mbappé
Free La Liga Prediction: Barcelona vs Real Madrid
Our prediction: Over 3.5 goals @ 1.55
The last seven Clásicos produced 33 goals, and five of them had four or more. Barcelona average five goals a game at home in the league, and over 2.5 goals has landed in 92% of their recent home games. Real Madrid have gone over 2.5 in 82% of their recent away games.
The case against is Mourinho. His teams have shut games down in this fixture before, and without Vinícius he may sit deeper. I still don’t see how a side missing its main runner keeps Raphinha and Yamal out for 90 minutes, and Barcelona’s own back line, missing García and Christensen, conceded four in Paris on Tuesday.
I’d back over 3.5 goals at 1.55. If you’d rather a smaller step, over 2.5 is priced at 1.20, but the four-goal line is where the value sits.
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