- 1 Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur: one Spurs league win in 34 visits to Stamford Bridge
- 2 Chelsea: five league goals for Joao Pedro, and a 21-year-old in goal
- 3 Tottenham Hotspur: a first league win on Monday, six players unavailable
- 4 Free Premier League Prediction: Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
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- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur: one Spurs league win in 34 visits to Stamford Bridge 
Tottenham have won one league game in 34 trips to Stamford Bridge, a 3-1 in April 2018. Chelsea have taken the last six league meetings between the clubs, and the most recent was a 2-1 at the Bridge on 19 May.
Saturday’s game kicks off at 17:30 UK time, and the gap in the table is wide. Chelsea are fourth with 13 points from seven games (W4 D1 L2, goals 17-13). Spurs are 16th on six points, with six league goals scored all season.
Their first league win came on Monday night. Tottenham beat Coventry 3-1, with James Maddison scoring on 14 minutes in his first start for 18 months, Omar Marmoush getting his first goal for the club and Ben Davies adding a third five minutes into stoppage time. Before that, Roberto De Zerbi’s side had drawn three and lost three of their first six league matches.
Chelsea come in on a different footing. Xabi Alonso’s side won 2-0 at Everton last Friday, with Pedro Neto scoring both, and beat Bournemouth 5-1 at home the week before. Neither club is in Europe this season, though Spurs have two fewer days of rest after playing on Monday.
The complication for Chelsea is in goal. Emiliano Martinez fractured his jaw in a collision at Everton and has had surgery, so 21-year-old Mike Penders is set to start. Chelsea had gone more than 20 league games without a clean sheet before the Everton win, which tells us the defence in front of him won’t offer much cover.
The scoring profile points the same way. Chelsea’s league matches have averaged 4.29 goals this season, the highest figure in the division, while Spurs games have averaged 2.29.
Chelsea: five league goals for Joao Pedro, and a 21-year-old in goal 
Joao Pedro has five Premier League goals and three assists this season. He scored twice against Bournemouth on 10 October, in the 46th and 67th minutes, and Morgan Rogers has four league goals of his own. Rogers’ record against Tottenham reads four goals and two assists in seven career games.
The attack isn’t where the doubts lie. Chelsea have scored 17 in seven league games and 25 in nine across all competitions, including a 6-3 win over Leeds in the EFL Cup. Cole Palmer has four goals in all competitions and three league assists, and Neto’s two at Everton came at the start of the second half and in stoppage time.
The defensive numbers are weaker. Chelsea lost 3-0 at Brentford on 18 September and drew 2-2 at home to Hull a week earlier, and they’ve conceded in 11 consecutive home games. Even so, they’re unbeaten in four home league matches this season, with three wins and a draw.
Reece James is out for around three months after knee surgery, Jamie Gittens has an ankle problem that keeps him out until November and Emmanuel Emegha isn’t fully fit. Malo Gusto has been ill but is expected to be available, while Pep Chavarria is carrying a knock.
Penders is the change we’d watch most closely. Robert Sanchez is on loan at Como, so there’s no experienced alternative, and Martinez isn’t expected back before November at the earliest. We’d expect the back three of Acheampong, Lacroix and Colwill to be asked to protect him by keeping Spurs away from the box rather than inviting shots.
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Tottenham Hotspur: a first league win on Monday, six players unavailable 
Rodrigo Bentancur is suspended after his red card at Old Trafford on 10 October, and he’s one of six Spurs players who won’t be available. Xavi Simons and Wilson Odobert have ACL injuries, Savinho has a muscle problem until early November, and Lucas Bergvall and Mykhailo Mudryk aren’t due back until 31 October.
Three more came off against Coventry. Andy Robertson, Tosin Adarabioyo and Marmoush were all forced off, and De Zerbi said none of the problems was serious. Destiny Udogie missed Monday’s game with a minor knee issue and Pedro Porro is close to a return from a hamstring injury, so both full-back spots are open.
Goals have been hard to come by. Spurs needed 67 shots to score their first league goal of the season, and their six league goals have come from six different players: Gallagher, van Hecke, Solanke, Maddison, Marmoush and Davies.
Away from home it’s been thin as well. Spurs are winless in four league away games, with two draws and two defeats, and the draw at Old Trafford needed a 90th-minute Solanke header with ten men on the pitch. They lost 3-0 at Brentford on 22 August and went out of the EFL Cup with a 3-1 defeat at Liverpool.
They have kept two league clean sheets, in 0-0 draws at Nottingham Forest and at home to Everton. Across their last 27 Premier League games, Spurs have won four.
Probable lineup Chelsea: Penders; Acheampong, Lacroix, Colwill; Neto, Henderson, Caicedo, Hato; Palmer, Rogers; Joao Pedro
Probable lineup Tottenham Hotspur: Kinsky; Van Hecke, Adarabioyo, Van de Ven, Robertson; Gray, Tonali; Kudus, Maddison, Marmoush; Solanke
Free Premier League Prediction: Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur
Our prediction: Chelsea to win (around 1.70)
We’re backing a Chelsea win, available at around 1.70. Six straight league wins in this fixture and a single Spurs victory in 34 league visits to Stamford Bridge are the base of the call, and the current table only widens the gap.
The goalkeeper change and Chelsea’s run of conceding at home are the arguments against us. We don’t think Spurs carry enough threat to punish either: six league goals in seven games, six players unavailable and three more who left the pitch injured on Monday.
Chelsea scored five at home against Bournemouth and twice at Everton in the last fortnight, and Joao Pedro, Rogers and Palmer are all available. We expect them to score at least twice and take the three points.
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