- 1 Ajax vs Atalanta: Sarri arrives without three centre-backs
- 2 Ajax: seven straight games with a goal at both ends
- 3 Atalanta: three Serie A away games, three defeats
- 4 Free Conference League Prediction: Ajax vs Atalanta
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Ajax vs Atalanta: Sarri arrives without three centre-backs 
Atalanta will travel to Amsterdam without Giacomo Raspadori, Franck Kessié, Isak Hien and Odilon Kossounou. Raspadori strained his right hamstring and is out for around two weeks, Kessié has a calf strain, and the two centre-backs aren’t due back until after the international break. Giorgio Scalvini is also unlikely to make it because of a hamstring problem.
That’s a lot of the spine of Maurizio Sarri’s side missing for a trip to the Johan Cruijff ArenA on Thursday, kick-off 20:00 UK time. Sead Kolasinac might join the list too. He came off with a muscle injury after about 20 minutes at San Siro on Saturday and is having scans on Tuesday.
Sarri wasn’t in a good mood after that 3-2 defeat to Milan. He called the fixture list absurd, and I can see his point: his squad has played Pafos, Milan and now Ajax inside eight days with half a back line in the treatment room.
Ajax come into it after a 5-2 win at Groningen on Saturday, where they produced 3.1 expected goals. They’re fourth in the Eredivisie with 18 points from nine games and 27 goals scored, five points behind leaders Feyenoord.
Both sides need the points after one round of the league phase. Ajax lost 2-1 at Hajduk Split last Thursday, while Atalanta beat Pafos 3-1 in Bergamo. The two clubs have met twice before, both times in the 2020-21 Champions League group stage: 2-2 in Bergamo in October 2020, then 1-0 to Atalanta in Amsterdam that December.
The bookmakers have it close, with Ajax at 2.15, the draw at 3.50 and Atalanta at 2.55. I don’t think it’s that close, given who’s fit and where the game is played.
Ajax: seven straight games with a goal at both ends 
Ajax have scored in each of their last seven matches and conceded in all seven too. The run includes a 5-1 win at Fortuna Sittard, 5-1 at home to Willem II, 2-2 with Excelsior, 1-1 with NEC, the defeat in Split and Saturday’s 5-2 in Groningen.
Hajduk had 1.99 expected goals to Ajax’s 1.15, and Marc-André ter Stegen made six saves to keep the score down. Davy Klaassen equalised early in the second half before Šotiček won it for the home side a couple of minutes later.
At Groningen, Míchel Sánchez’s side looked far sharper going forward, with Klaassen, Julian Brandt and Oscar Gloukh behind the striker.
Over their last five games Ajax have averaged 2.7 expected goals for and 1.2 against. Sofyan Amrabat and Mokio started together in midfield at Groningen, and that pairing gives Ajax a base that Atalanta, short of bodies, will find hard to play through.
Kasper Dolberg is out for the season with a torn cruciate ligament, Caio Henrique has a thigh problem, Anton Gaaei is out until around the end of November with a calf injury, and Daley Blind and Steven Berghuis are both sidelined. Simon Adingra is a doubt, Khalil Fayad picked up a knock in Split, and Yves Bissouma isn’t registered for the league phase.
Even so, Ajax have lost one Eredivisie game all season, 3-1 at home to PSV on 5 September. With Atalanta short of defenders, I’d expect them to create plenty in Amsterdam.
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Atalanta: three Serie A away games, three defeats 
Atalanta have lost every Serie A match they’ve played away from home this season: at Roma, at Juventus and at Milan. Their only away win of the campaign came in the Conference League play-off, 1-0 at Hapoel Tel Aviv.
They’re tenth in Serie A after seven games, with three wins and four defeats and a goal difference of minus one. The wins came against Bologna and Venezia, both in Bergamo.
Saturday at San Siro followed a familiar pattern. Milan were 2-0 up at half-time through a Ramos penalty and Adrien Rabiot, Gila made it three on 57 minutes, and only then did Atalanta respond, with Gaetano and Nikola Krstovic scoring late. Charles De Ketelaere played despite a knock picked up against Pafos.
The Pafos game was the one bright spot of the week. Eljif Elmas scored inside a minute, Raspadori converted a penalty and Gianluca Scamacca added a third before half-time. Raspadori won’t be available this time, and Elmas has been listed as suspended, which leaves Scamacca carrying most of the threat.
Mario Pasalic and Ederson started together in midfield at San Siro and should do so again. Carnesecchi has started in goal in both games this week.
Without Hien, Kossounou and Scalvini, and with Kolasinac in doubt, Sarri could be picking his centre-backs from whoever is left. Atalanta conceded 1.8 expected goals per game over their last five, and that was before Saturday’s injury.
Probable lineup Ajax: Ter Stegen; Kehrer, Rosa, Baas, Bouwman; Amrabat, Mokio, Gloukh; Brandt, Tsygankov, Arokodare
Probable lineup Atalanta: Carnesecchi; Kristensen, Kolasinac (doubt); Pasalic, Ederson; Zalewski, Samardzic, De Ketelaere; Scamacca (remaining places undecided)
Free Conference League Prediction: Ajax vs Atalanta
Our prediction: Ajax to win (odds 2.15)
Atalanta’s away record in Serie A reads three played, three lost, and they arrive in Amsterdam without three senior centre-backs, possibly four if Kolasinac’s scan goes badly. Ajax have scored in seven straight games and put five past Groningen on Saturday.
The case against is that Ajax have conceded in every one of those seven games, and Scamacca is good enough to punish that. I’d accept a goal at the other end. What I don’t see is how this Atalanta side keeps Ajax to one.
At 2.15 the home win is the price I want. Ajax have the fitter squad and the sharper attack this month, and Atalanta’s manager has already called this week’s schedule absurd.
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