- 1 Chicago Bears vs New England Patriots: two top-five scoring defences on a short week
- 2 New England Patriots: no Maye interceptions in two weeks, three starting linemen hurt on Sunday
- 3 Chicago Bears: the league’s top rushing attack, and the worst red-zone touchdown rate
- 4 Free NFL Prediction: Chicago Bears vs New England Patriots
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Chicago Bears vs New England Patriots: two top-five scoring defences on a short week 
New England allowed 18.8 points per game through the first five weeks of the season, fourth-fewest in the league. Chicago allowed 19.2, fifth-fewest.
Both teams are 4-2 going into Thursday night at Soldier Field, kick-off 8:15pm ET on Prime Video. New England have won three straight, the latest 26-19 against the Jets on Sunday. Chicago won 31-23 in Atlanta, having led 31-7 at one stage.
Caleb Williams was back for that game after missing Weeks 3 to 5 with a right hamstring strain. He completed 30 of 36 passes for 305 yards, with a touchdown and no interceptions.
Chicago are 2.5-point favourites, with the moneyline at 1.68 for the Bears and 2.24 for the Patriots. The total opened at 49.5 and is still there, with both sides of it priced at 1.91.
Unders are 4-2 in both teams’ games this season. Both are on a four-day turnaround, and New England lost three starting offensive linemen during Sunday’s win over the Jets.
The last time these teams met, on 10 November 2024 at Soldier Field, New England won 19-3. With two top-five defences, a battered Patriots line and a short week, we think 49.5 is too high.
New England Patriots: no Maye interceptions in two weeks, three starting linemen hurt on Sunday 
Drake Maye threw six interceptions in the first three weeks of the season. In Weeks 5 and 6 he threw none, and the Patriots scored 45 against the Raiders and 26 against the Jets.
On Sunday he went 18 of 32 for 235 yards and three touchdowns, to Romeo Doubs, DeMario Douglas and Hunter Henry. For the season he’s 117 of 183 for 1,463 yards with 11 touchdowns and seven interceptions, and he has 185 rushing yards.
New England lost 13-10 in Seattle in Week 1 and 35-6 in Jacksonville in Week 3. Across six games they’ve scored 136 points, an average of 22.7, and allowed 113.
The injury list is long for a Thursday game. Doubs is questionable with a shoulder problem, as are Morgan Moses, Alijah Vera-Tucker, Ben Brown and Carlton Davis III, while Mike Onwenu, Greg Van Roten and Mack Hollins are on injured reserve.
Rhamondre Stevenson had 227 rushing yards and two touchdowns through five weeks. A.J. Brown is back from a high ankle sprain, though his workload hasn’t been confirmed.
Through Week 5 New England ranked 27th in turnover margin, at minus one per game.
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Chicago Bears: the league’s top rushing attack, and the worst red-zone touchdown rate 
Chicago led the league with 173.2 rushing yards per game through five weeks. D’Andre Swift had 354 yards and four touchdowns by then and added two more scores in Atlanta, and Kyle Monangai had 324 yards and three touchdowns.
Their red-zone numbers point the other way. Only 42.9% of their trips inside the 20 ended in touchdowns through Week 5, the lowest rate in the league.
The defence has carried a lot of the load. Chicago allowed opponents to convert 26.0% of third downs, second-best in the league, and conceded 19.2 points per game over the same stretch.
The season has swung from week to week. Chicago opened with a 59-37 win in Carolina, lost 9-3 to Minnesota, beat the Eagles 27-7 and the Jets 23-12, then lost 31-7 at Green Bay in Week 5. Take out the Carolina game and their five other opponents scored 82 points between them.
Monangai is questionable again, along with Jonah Jackson, Tyrique Stevenson and T.J. Edwards. Anthony Johnson is on injured reserve.
Williams has played three games this season for 712 passing yards, three touchdowns and one interception, plus 110 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Luther Burden caught eight passes for 95 yards in Atlanta, and Colston Loveland had six for 65 and a touchdown.
Probable lineup Chicago Bears: QB Caleb Williams, RB D’Andre Swift, WR Luther Burden, TE Colston Loveland
Probable lineup New England Patriots: QB Drake Maye, RB Rhamondre Stevenson, WR A.J. Brown, TE Hunter Henry
Free NFL Prediction: Chicago Bears vs New England Patriots
Our prediction: Under 49.5 total points (1.91)
We’re taking the under at 1.91. Both defences sat in the league’s top five for points allowed through Week 5, unders are 4-2 in each team’s games, and eight of the twelve games these sides have played this season stayed under 49.5 points. That’s four of six for each team.
The Bears scoring 31 in Atlanta with Williams back is the main argument against us, and the over is 2-1 in his starts. Chicago’s red-zone rate, last in the league through five weeks, has kept their totals down, and New England’s patched-up offensive line faces a defence that held opponents to 26.0% on third down.
Both teams are on a four-day turnaround, New England’s line lost three starters on Sunday, and the last meeting between them ended 19-3. Under 49.5 at 1.91 is the pick.
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