- 1 Illawarra Hawks vs Sydney Kings: a first win in a month meets a champion on a short week
- 2 Illawarra Hawks Analysis
- 3 Sydney Kings Analysis
- 4 Free NBL Prediction: Illawarra Hawks vs Sydney Kings
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Illawarra Hawks vs Sydney Kings: a first win in a month meets a champion on a short week 
The Illawarra Hawks host the Sydney Kings at WIN Entertainment Centre in Wollongong on Thursday 22 October, with tip-off at 10h30 Paris time. It is a Round 6 fixture in NBL27 and a New South Wales derby between two sides in very different seasons.
Illawarra moved to 2-6 on Sunday 18 October with a 91-89 win at Melbourne United, only the second win of their season. Sydney sit at 4-2 after a 102-81 home win over Perth on 17 October.
The Kings beat the Hawks 121-100 at Afterpay Arena in Round 2, so the first meeting of the season was decisive. Sydney also lead the all-time series 69-55 and won four of the five meetings last season.
Illawarra score freely, averaging 99.7 points per game and reaching 100 in four of their first seven games. Their problem is at the other end, where they have allowed more than they can afford.
Sydney lost 78-84 to Adelaide on 11 October and 101-102 to the Breakers on 14 October before the Perth win. That pair of defeats is the only evidence the Kings can be caught, and both came in games decided by a handful of possessions.
The question on Thursday is whether the Hawks can turn a hot offensive night against Melbourne into a repeatable plan. The two team sections below look at what each side brings into the arena.
Illawarra Hawks Analysis 
Illawarra lost 121-100 at Sydney in Round 2 and 122-112 at home to Tasmania on 9 October. They then went to Melbourne and won 91-89, ending a run that had left them at 1-6.
The win at John Cain Arena was built on one quarter. The Hawks outscored United 35-16 in the second period to lead 56-43 at half-time, then held on after United won the fourth quarter 24-13.
Makur Maker scored 23 points on 10-of-14 shooting off the bench and hit the go-ahead three with 1:11 left. Milton Doyle added 16 points and 7 assists, Kelan Martin scored 14 off the bench, and Sam Froling scored all 12 of his points in the first half.
Maker averages 14.5 points and 5.8 rebounds since joining after the club released Darius Days one game into the season. Doyle says coach Justin Tatum gives the players freedom to adjust on the fly, which suits the open style that produces the scoring numbers.
The injury list is short but costly. Todd Blanchfield has a broken finger with no return date, and Mason Peatling is out for the season after foot surgery announced on 9 October.
The decisive point for Illawarra is the defensive start. They conceded 27 points in the first quarter in Melbourne, and against a Kings team that scored 121 in Round 2, a slow opening would close the game early.
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Sydney Kings Analysis 
Sydney opened with a 111-90 win over Cairns, a 121-100 win over Illawarra and a 93-78 win over Brisbane. Adelaide then beat them 84-78 at Afterpay Arena, and the Breakers won 102-101 in Canberra.
The response came on Saturday 17 October, when the Kings beat Perth 102-81 at home. A 21-point margin against a side with a full week of rest says the group took the two close defeats seriously.
Kendric Davis scored 26 points with 6 assists in the opening win over Cairns, and Xavier Cooks added 18 points and 7 rebounds in that game. Those two remain the reference points for a Kings offence that made 12 or more three-pointers in six consecutive games earlier in the campaign.
Matthew Dellavedova is out with a calf injury, and the NBL list has him back in Round 7. Keli Leaupepe is out for the season with an ACL injury.
The schedule is a factor. Sydney played Saturday, travel to Wollongong on Thursday, then go to Melbourne on Sunday 25 October, so the rotation will be tested across three games in nine days.
The decisive point for the Kings is the head-to-head pattern. Their last three wins over Illawarra came by 24, 18 and 26 points, and the Round 2 margin of 21 points fits the same shape.
Probable lineup Illawarra Hawks: Not announced at time of publication.
Probable lineup Sydney Kings: Not announced at time of publication.
Free NBL Prediction: Illawarra Hawks vs Sydney Kings
Our prediction: Sydney Kings win
Sydney have the better record, the better recent head-to-head and a rotation that handled Perth with ease on Saturday. Illawarra are 2-6 and their defence has been the weak point all season.
The supporting factor is the Round 2 template. The Kings scored 121 against this opponent, and the Hawks have not shown a defensive change that would stop a repeat.
Back the Kings to win in Wollongong.
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