- 1 Hoffenheim vs Lyon: three meetings, three draws and 14 goals between them
- 2 Hoffenheim: both teams have scored in every home game this season
- 3 Lyon: top of Ligue 1, but Openda and Tagliafico are missing
- 4 Free Europa League Prediction: Hoffenheim vs Lyon
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Hoffenheim vs Lyon: three meetings, three draws and 14 goals between them 
Hoffenheim and Lyon have met three times and drawn every one: 3-3 in Sinsheim and 2-2 in Lyon in the 2018 Champions League group, then 2-2 in Sinsheim in the Europa League in November 2024. Both sides scored in all three.
The fourth meeting kicks off at 8pm UK time on Thursday, and the two clubs come into it from opposite ends of the Europa League table. Lyon have won both games. Hoffenheim have lost both.
Christian Ilzer’s side lost 2-0 at OFI Crete in September and then 3-2 at home to Besiktas last Thursday, when two goals from Oh in six minutes put the Turkish side 3-1 up. Captain Oliver Baumann didn’t hide his frustration afterwards.
Lyon beat Anderlecht 2-1 away and then Crystal Palace 3-2 in Lyon, with Corentin Tolisso, Ernest Nuamah and Pavel Sulc scoring. They sit level with four other clubs on 14 points at the top of Ligue 1, first on goal difference.
Hoffenheim did win on Saturday, 2-1 at Borussia Monchengladbach, their first away league win of the season. It took them to 14th in the Bundesliga on six points.
The bookmakers still make Hoffenheim slight favourites, at between 2.00 and 2.31, with Lyon between 3.30 and 3.50. That’s a generous view of a side that has lost four of its last six games.
Every game Hoffenheim have played at home this season has had goals at both ends. That’s the thread I’d follow here.
Hoffenheim: both teams have scored in every home game this season 
Hoffenheim have won one of their four home games in all competitions, scoring eight and conceding ten. They beat Stuttgart 2-1 and lost 3-2 to Dortmund, 3-2 to Hamburger SV and 3-2 to Besiktas.
The Hamburg game on 10 October showed the problem. Hoffenheim led 2-1, Bernardo was sent off, and they conceded twice late on. Five days later they went 3-1 down to Besiktas before Machida’s late goal made it 3-2.
Across their last ten matches they’ve conceded 2.3 goals a game, kept one clean sheet and seen both teams score in 80% of them. They’ve also scored 1.9 a game in that run.
Ilzer is under pressure, although sporting director Andreas Schicker said earlier this month there would be no change of coach. Prass helped ease it on Saturday: making his first start since April, he scored the winner at Gladbach on 54 minutes and was named man of the match.
Albian Hajdari is out for several weeks with a foot injury picked up in training on 13 October, and Patrick Wimmer won’t return before the November international break with a hamstring problem. Bernardo’s suspension is from the Bundesliga.
Baumann should start behind Coufal, Kabak, Machida and Bernardo, with Avdullahu and Burger in midfield. Asllani scored against Besiktas and Lemperle set it up.
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Lyon: top of Ligue 1, but Openda and Tagliafico are missing 
Paulo Fonseca’s side have won four of their last six games in all competitions. The exceptions were a 0-0 at Paris FC and a 2-1 defeat at Lens on 9 October, their first league loss of the season.
They’re in this competition because of a summer setback. Lyon got past Sparta Prague in the Champions League qualifiers, then lost the play-off to Fenerbahce, drawing 1-1 in Istanbul and losing 2-1 at home.
They bounced back with two home wins in four days. Palace were beaten 3-2, and on Saturday Lyon came from behind to beat Nice 2-1, with Sulc and Tessmann scoring three minutes apart after Wahi had put Nice ahead.
That game also brought a red card for Keito Nakamura, who came off the bench and was sent off on 71 minutes for a high foot. He’d made two assists against Palace, but the ban is a domestic one.
The injury list is heavier. Lois Openda, on loan from Juventus since July, is out, along with Nicolas Tagliafico and Mohamed Ouedraogo. Tyler Morton is managing a groin problem but was in the squad against Nice.
Lyon conceded two at home to Palace and one to Nice, and across their last ten matches they’ve let in a goal a game. Away from home that figure drops to 0.8, which is the one number that argues against goals on Thursday.
Fonseca rotated against Nice, starting Descamps in goal with Abner, Niakhate, Mata and Athekame in defence. A stronger side is likely in Sinsheim, with Tolisso and Nuamah expected back alongside Sulc.
Probable lineup Hoffenheim: Baumann; Coufal, Kabak, Machida, Bernardo; Avdullahu, Burger; Conte, Hlozek, Prass; Lemperle
Probable lineup Lyon: Descamps; Athekame, Niakhate, Mata, Abner; Tessmann, Morton, Tolisso; Nuamah, Sulc, Nakamura
Free Europa League Prediction: Hoffenheim vs Lyon
Our prediction: Both teams to score
I’d back both teams to score. It’s happened in every Hoffenheim home game this season, in all three previous meetings between these clubs and in 80% of Hoffenheim’s last ten matches.
Lyon’s away defence is the counter-argument: 0.8 conceded per game on the road over their last ten. But they’ve conceded in three of their last four games and Hoffenheim have scored at least twice in all four of their home games.
Both teams to score at 1.50 is the pick. I’d lean towards Lyon for the result, given the form of both sides, but I wouldn’t trust either defence to keep a clean sheet.
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