- 1 Bournemouth vs AC Milan: Rose’s European debutants against Amorim’s goal-hungry Milan
- 2 Bournemouth: one home defeat in 14 and Evanilson back among the goals
- 3 AC Milan: Alphadjo Cisse’s hat-trick and goals in every Serie A game
- 4 Free Europa League Prediction: Bournemouth vs AC Milan
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Bournemouth vs AC Milan: Rose’s European debutants against Amorim’s goal-hungry Milan 
Bournemouth are the first English club since Bolton in the 2005-06 UEFA Cup to win their first two games in a major European competition. They won 2-1 at Real Sociedad in September and beat Sturm Graz 3-0 last Thursday in the club’s first ever home game in Europe.
AC Milan arrive at the Vitality Stadium on Thursday, 8pm UK time, and they’re a very different proposition. Ruben Amorim’s side won 4-0 at Salzburg on the same night, then beat Atalanta 3-2 at San Siro on Saturday to stay unbeaten in Serie A.
Marco Rose finally has league points to go with the European ones. Saturday’s 2-0 win over Sunderland was Bournemouth’s first in the Premier League this season and lifted them to 15th on six points from seven games.
Milan are fourth in Serie A on 15 points from seven, with four wins and three draws. Their only defeat of the season came in Europe, a 2-0 home loss to Benfica on the opening night of the league phase.
Both clubs play league games three days later. Rose has kept 80% of his starting XI over the last six games, while Amorim has kept fewer than half of his, and Milan’s heavily changed side still won 4-0 in Salzburg.
No previous competitive meeting between the clubs appears in the records.
Both sides have won two of their last three games and both have scored freely. I can’t see this one being settled 1-0.
Bournemouth: one home defeat in 14 and Evanilson back among the goals 
Before Saturday, Bournemouth had lost one of their last 14 home games in all competitions, winning five and drawing eight. The 1-0 defeat by Liverpool on 20 September was that loss.
Sunderland made it easy for them. Marcus Tavernier headed in an Evanilson cross in the sixth minute for his fourth goal of the season, Kevin Danso was sent off on 17 minutes for a foul on Evanilson, and the Brazilian added the second three minutes after half-time.
Evanilson also scored against Sturm Graz, with Rayan and Alvaro Rodriguez, from the penalty spot, getting the others. Rose made five changes for that game after a 5-1 defeat at Chelsea on 10 October, and his side still won comfortably. Evanilson has now had a hand in both goals against Sunderland and one of the three against Sturm Graz, and he’s around 2.60 to score at any time on Thursday.
That Chelsea result is the warning. Bournemouth conceded eight goals across their league games with Chelsea, Liverpool and Brentford, five of them at Stamford Bridge.
Alex Scott, Eli Junior Kroupi and Julian Araujo are out, and Veljko Milosavljevic is unlikely. Justin Kluivert and Amine Adli have returned to the squad after hamstring and calf problems.
Rose used a 4-4-2 against Sturm Graz with Evanilson and Rodriguez up front, Tavernier on the left and Petrovic in goal. Over their last ten matches Bournemouth have taken 1.6 points a game at home.
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AC Milan: Alphadjo Cisse’s hat-trick and goals in every Serie A game 
Alphadjo Cisse scored three times in Salzburg, in the 15th, 32nd and 49th minutes. At 19 years and 358 days he became the youngest Italian to score a hat-trick in UEFA men’s club competition, and Goncalo Ramos added the fourth.
Milan haven’t failed to score in Serie A this season. They drew 2-2 at Lazio and 1-1 at Sassuolo, beat Lecce 3-0, and on Saturday got goals from Ramos, from the penalty spot, Adrien Rabiot and Mario Gila to edge Atalanta 3-2.
Atalanta scored twice at San Siro, through Gianluca Gaetano and Nikola Krstovic, and that’s the side of Milan that matters for Thursday. Across their last ten games their away matches have averaged 3.43 goals, with both teams scoring in 71% of them.
Amorim will be without Filippo Terracciano, sent off in the 83rd minute in Salzburg. Matteo Gabbia and Alexis Saelemaekers are out until the new year, Samuel Chukwueze is a doubt and Silvano Vos is unlikely to feature.
In Salzburg he picked Maignan; Tomori, De Winter, Pavlovic, Bartesaghi; Hutchinson, Jashari, Rabiot, Cisse; Camarda, Loftus-Cheek. That was a rotated side, and Milan play again in Serie A three days later, so a similar mix is likely.
The squad trained on Sunday with no day off after Atalanta, as Amorim began preparing for the trip. Over their last ten matches Milan have taken 1.8 points a game, and 1.71 away from home.
Probable lineup Bournemouth: Petrovic; Soler, Diakite, Silva, Smith; Gannon-Doak, Adams, Cook, Tavernier; Evanilson, Rodriguez
Probable lineup AC Milan: Maignan; Tomori, De Winter, Pavlovic, Bartesaghi; Hutchinson, Jashari, Rabiot, Cisse; Camarda, Loftus-Cheek
Free Europa League Prediction: Bournemouth vs AC Milan
Our prediction: Over 2.5 goals (1.73)
I’d back goals. Bournemouth have scored five in their last two home games, Milan have scored 11 in their last four in all competitions, and Milan’s away games have averaged more than three goals across their last ten.
The risk is that both managers rotate and the game turns cagey. I don’t think either of them will set up that way: Rose’s side play two up front at home, and Milan conceded twice to Atalanta on Saturday.
Over 2.5 goals at 1.73 is the pick. I wouldn’t pick a winner here at 2.10 and 3.10, but I’d be surprised if there were fewer than three goals.
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