- 1 Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig: four meetings, one Leipzig win, and goals at both ends of the pitch
- 2 Real Madrid: 4-3 from 3-1 down in Rome, and Vinícius available again in Europe
- 3 RB Leipzig: 6-0 and 5-0 at home, 6-1 and 4-1 down on the road
- 4 Free Champions League Prediction: Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig: four meetings, one Leipzig win, and goals at both ends of the pitch 
Leipzig have beaten Real Madrid once. It came on 25 October 2022, a 3-2 win in Germany in the group stage, six weeks after Real had won the first game 2-0 at the Bernabéu.
The sides met again in the last 16 in 2024. Real won 1-0 in Leipzig on 13 February and drew 1-1 in Madrid on 6 March to go through. Four games in all: two Real wins, a draw and that one Leipzig victory.
The context on Wednesday is different. Real have six points from two games after beating Inter 2-1 and winning 4-3 in Rome, and they sit eighth. Leipzig have three points, lost 4-1 at Como on the opening night and sit 21st.
Leipzig also arrive straight from a 6-1 defeat at Bayern Munich on Saturday. Luis Díaz scored three, Pavlovic, Olise and Kane added the rest, and Maksimovic’s goal came in stoppage time.
Kick-off is 8pm UK time at the Santiago Bernabéu. The forecast for Madrid is rain and around 19 degrees.
The prices make Real around 1.27 to win. I’m more interested in the goals. Real’s games have produced 2.83 on average this season, Leipzig’s 2.94, and Leipzig’s away games at Bremen, Como, Leverkusen and Bayern have produced 18 goals between them.
Real Madrid: 4-3 from 3-1 down in Rome, and Vinícius available again in Europe 
José Mourinho’s side were 3-1 down at Roma last Wednesday with 25 minutes left. Carlos Espí scored on 83 minutes, Endrick on 85, and Antonio Rüdiger won it in the 90th from an Arda Güler assist.
That game showed both sides of this Real team. They scored four away from home, and they let in three, two of them from Malen early in the second half. Across the season they average 1.98 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game.
Kylian Mbappé has scored in both Champions League games, against Inter on 14 minutes and in Rome. He has two goals from eight shots in the competition, all eight on target, and four goals and two assists in his last five matches.
Vinícius Júnior is serving a four-match LaLiga ban after his red card against Villarreal on 10 October, for pulling Nathan Saliba’s hair. The ban covers league games only, so he’s available on Wednesday after sitting out Sunday’s home game against Sevilla.
The league table is less comfortable. Real are fourth with 18 points from eight games, six behind Barcelona, after a 2-1 defeat at Atlético Madrid on 20 September. Éder Militão, Raúl Asencio, Rodrygo and Ferland Mendy are all out.
Three of Real’s last five home games have produced four goals or more. With Militão and Asencio missing, the centre-back pairing is Rüdiger and Konaté.
Bellingham is expected behind Mbappé, with Vinícius on the left and Diomande on the right. Tchouaméni and Valverde, who scored against Inter, sit behind them. That’s a lot of attacking talent on the pitch in front of a back four missing two of its centre-backs.
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RB Leipzig: 6-0 and 5-0 at home, 6-1 and 4-1 down on the road 
Martín Demichelis was appointed on 22 June, and his Leipzig side have been all or nothing. They beat Hamburg 5-0 and Frankfurt 6-0 at home, then lost 3-1 at Werder Bremen, 2-0 at Leverkusen and 6-1 at Bayern.
Add the 4-1 defeat at Como and those four away games read three goals scored, 15 conceded. The only Champions League win came at home, 1-0 against PSV on 13 October.
The attack carries real threat. Nkunku has four Bundesliga goals, Nusa has three, and Nusa has two goals and three assists in his last five games along with seven shots in the Champions League. Gruda and Maksimovic have their European goals.
Defensively the numbers are poor: 1.43 goals conceded per game across the season, and 64.7% of their matches have gone over 2.5 goals. Three of their last five away games produced four goals or more.
They’re without Baumgartner, Ouédraogo and Guiu. Nine points from six Bundesliga games leaves them well off the pace at home too, so Demichelis can’t afford to treat Wednesday as a free hit.
I’d want a lot more than one clean sheet against PSV before trusting this back four in Madrid. Leipzig will create chances on the break through Nusa and Nkunku, and they’ll concede them.
Leipzig haven’t drawn a Bundesliga game this season: three wins and three defeats from six. A team that hasn’t played a tight league game all autumn isn’t one I’d expect to keep the Bernabéu quiet.
Probable lineup Real Madrid: Courtois; Cucurella, Rüdiger, Konaté, Dumfries; Tchouaméni, Valverde; Vinícius, Bellingham, Diomande; Mbappé
Probable lineup RB Leipzig: Vandevoordt; Raum, Lukeba, Orbán, Baku; Banzuzi, El Aynaoui; Nusa, Nkunku, Gruda; Romulo
Free Champions League Prediction: Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig
Our prediction: Over 3.5 goals @ 1.72
I’m taking over 3.5 goals at 1.72. Leipzig’s trips to Bremen, Como, Leverkusen and Bayern produced 18 goals between them, and Real’s Champions League matches this season have produced three and seven.
Real score heavily, with Mbappé hitting the target with every shot in Europe and Vinícius back. They also concede: three in Rome, and Militão and Asencio aren’t available. Leipzig have Nkunku and Nusa in form and a defence that’s let in 15 on those four trips.
A Real win is the likeliest result, but at 1.27 there’s little in it. Four goals in a Bernabéu game against this Leipzig side is the better bet, and the head-to-head adds to it: the last time Leipzig beat Real, the game finished 3-2.
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