- 1 Manchester City vs AEK Athens: nine conceded in three home games by the league leaders
- 2 Manchester City: Haaland’s 12 league goals at one end, Sunderland, PSG and Ipswich all scoring at the other
- 3 AEK Athens: 16 goals in six league games and a goal in every match this season
- 4 Free Champions League Prediction: Manchester City vs AEK Athens
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Manchester City vs AEK Athens: nine conceded in three home games by the league leaders 
Sunderland scored three at the Etihad on 20 September. PSG scored four there last Wednesday, and Ipswich added two more on Saturday. That’s nine goals conceded at home in three games by a side that sits top of the Premier League with seven wins from seven.
Manchester City still won two of those three. They beat Sunderland 5-3 and Ipswich 3-2, and they’re six points clear as the only unbeaten team in the division. The PSG game was the exception: 2-4, with Doué, Dembélé, Vitinha and Akliouche all scoring for the visitors.
AEK Athens arrive on Tuesday with three points from two games. They beat LASK 1-0 in Athens on 8 September, then lost 3-1 to Shakhtar Donetsk at Stamford Bridge last week after Majer had put them ahead on 28 minutes.
At home in Greece they’ve been the best attacking side in the league. AEK have scored 16 goals in six Super League games, conceded three, and they’re unbeaten, a point behind Panathinaikos in second place.
Kick-off is 8pm UK time at the Etihad. Both sides are on three points, with City 17th and AEK 20th in the league-phase table, and the two clubs have never met in competitive football.
The market makes City around 1.08 to win. I’m not arguing with the winner. I’m arguing with the idea that AEK will leave Manchester without a goal.
Manchester City: Haaland’s 12 league goals at one end, Sunderland, PSG and Ipswich all scoring at the other 
Enzo Maresca took over after Pep Guardiola left in May, and the results have come quickly. City have won 3-0 at Liverpool, 1-0 at Manchester United and 4-1 at Crystal Palace, and they beat Norwich 5-0 in the League Cup.
Erling Haaland has 12 Premier League goals already. He scored both in the 2-0 win at Porto on matchday one, both against PSG, and two more against Ipswich on Saturday, which made four goals in a week.
He also limped off against Ipswich. Maresca said it was nothing serious, but he named Kovacic, Antoine and O’Reilly among the players carrying problems after the game, and O’Reilly is listed as doubtful.
Phil Foden is back after a three-game ban and scored on 19 minutes against Ipswich. Maeda equalised two minutes later, and Ipswich’s second came from a Flemming penalty. It was the third home game in a row in which City conceded at least twice.
The home record in the league reads 2-1 against Bournemouth, 1-0 against Coventry, 5-3 against Sunderland and 3-2 against Ipswich. One clean sheet in four, and that was a single-goal win.
I’d expect Maresca to keep most of his first-choice side, with City only 17th in this table after losing to PSG. The Ipswich game wasn’t a rotated one either, and they still let in two.
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AEK Athens: 16 goals in six league games and a goal in every match this season 
AEK have scored in every competitive game they’ve played this season. That covers all six league matches, an 8-1 cup win over Panserraikos and both Champions League fixtures.
The home numbers are the loudest: three league wins in Athens with a 12-0 aggregate, including 5-0 against Aris and 4-0 against Iraklis. Away, Marko Nikolic’s side have drawn 1-1 at Kifisia and at Asteras and won 2-1 at Volos, so they’ve scored on every league trip.
Luka Jovic has two goals in his last three games and leads the line. Majer, who scored at Stamford Bridge, plays in the midfield four behind him with Koita, Marin and Vitalis.
They’re without their first-choice goalkeeper. Thomas Strakosha has a wrist injury, so Brignoli continues in goal, and he was in the side that conceded three to Shakhtar, with Pedrinho scoring a penalty and Mendoza adding the third on 86 minutes.
That game turned after the hour. AEK led until Pedrinho’s penalty on 34 minutes, held 1-1 until the 80th, then conceded twice in six minutes. Holding on for 90 minutes at the Etihad will be harder still.
Defending isn’t the strength I’d back. Scoring is. A side that hasn’t failed to score all season, playing against a back line that’s conceded nine in three home games, has a real chance of finding the net once.
The Greek Super League table after Saturday has AEK on 14 points from six games, one behind Panathinaikos, with the most goals scored in the division and the best goal difference at plus 13. That’s the attack City will face, and it’s why I don’t see a clean sheet for the hosts.
Probable lineup Manchester City: Donnarumma; Gvardiol, Dias, Guehi, Nunes; Fernandez, Bouaddi; Semenyo, Cherki, Foden; Haaland
Probable lineup AEK Athens: Brignoli; Pilios, Relvas, Moukoudi, Rota; Koita, Marin, Vitalis, Majer; Jovic, Varga
Free Champions League Prediction: Manchester City vs AEK Athens
Our prediction: Both teams to score @ 2.25
I’m backing both teams to score at 2.25. City have conceded in three of their four home league games and in the PSG defeat, and they’ve let in nine goals across the Sunderland, PSG and Ipswich matches alone.
AEK haven’t failed to score in any competitive game this season. They’ve scored on all three league away trips, they scored at Stamford Bridge, and Jovic has two in his last three. One goal is all this pick needs from them.
City may well win by three or four, and Haaland is the most likely scorer on the pitch. That doesn’t stop AEK nicking one, and at 2.25 the price is bigger than the evidence suggests it should be.
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