- 1 Como vs Manchester United: Carrick’s side travel without Yoro and without a win in five
- 2 Como: 11 points from six in Serie A, but Diao is missing for two to three weeks
- 3 Manchester United: one win in their last ten Champions League away games
- 4 Free Champions League Prediction: Como vs Manchester United
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Como vs Manchester United: Carrick’s side travel without Yoro and without a win in five 
Manchester United will be without Leny Yoro at the Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia. The defender was sent off for denying a goalscoring opportunity during last Tuesday’s 2-0 defeat at Atlético Madrid and serves a one-match UEFA suspension.
That night went wrong from the first minute. Pablo Barrios scored after 53 seconds, Ademola Lookman added the second after Yoro’s dismissal, and United finished with nine shots, their lowest total of the campaign.
Michael Carrick’s side have won one of their six Premier League games, sit 13th and face growing pressure on the manager. Their visit to Leeds on Sunday afternoon comes three days before this trip to Lake Como.
Como are playing their first Champions League season and started it with a 4-1 win over RB Leipzig on 10 September. They lost 3-2 at Feyenoord last week, which leaves Cesc Fàbregas’s side 12th on three points, one place above United, with both clubs on one win and one defeat.
Kick-off is 17:45 UK time on Wednesday 21 October. We’ve found no previous competitive meeting between the clubs. The market has Como as slight favourites at around 2.27 on average, with the draw near 3.77 and United at 2.81, and we think the home side should be shorter than that.
Como: 11 points from six in Serie A, but Diao is missing for two to three weeks 
Fàbregas’s side went into Sunday’s trip to Fiorentina eighth in Serie A with 11 points, nine goals scored and six conceded. The best of those results was a 2-1 win at Napoli on 30 August, followed by a 4-1 win at Genoa and a 2-1 home victory over Parma.
The one league defeat came at Frosinone, 2-0 on 20 September. Como then drew 0-0 with Roma on 11 October, failing to score after Roma’s Donyell Malen was sent off in the 53rd minute.
Assane Diao scored in Rotterdam before limping off after 23 minutes with a grade-one hamstring strain. He’s expected to miss two to three weeks, which rules him out of this game after he’d scored two Champions League goals.
Anastasios Douvikas also has two goals in the competition, and Martin Baturina has a goal, an assist and four chances created. Nico Paz is in the squad and is expected to start in the number ten role behind Douvikas.
Over 2.5 goals and both teams to score have each landed in three of Como’s last five matches, and they’ve averaged 2.22 expected goals over that run. United’s last five, by contrast, have brought no wins, two draws and three defeats. Jean Butez is expected back in goal after Robert Sánchez started in Rotterdam.
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Manchester United: one win in their last ten Champions League away games 
United’s away record in this competition sets the tone for our view. They’ve won one of their last ten Champions League away matches, drawing three and losing five, and they’ve kept one clean sheet in their last 14 trips.
United’s wider form since the opening night has been just as poor. Since the 4-0 win over Sabah on matchday one, United have lost 1-0 at home to Manchester City, 3-2 at home to Brighton in the League Cup and 2-0 in Madrid, with draws at Fulham (1-1) and against Tottenham (1-1). Over their last five games they’ve averaged 0.8 goals.
Yoro isn’t the only first-team player Carrick will be without. Benjamin Šeško is out with a lower-leg injury, Manuel Ugarte has a torn ACL and Patrick Dorgu has a hamstring problem, while Kobbie Mainoo, Noussair Mazraoui and Luke Shaw are all doubts. Carlos Baleba is available to start in midfield.
Bruno Fernandes has six shots and five chances created in the league phase. He, Lisandro Martínez and Matheus Cunha have one Champions League goal each, as does Šeško, who won’t play.
Bryan Mbeumo, Amad Diallo and Youri Tielemans are the likely starters around Fernandes, with Senne Lammens in goal. Carrick will need a replacement for Yoro in the back four.
Probable lineup Como: Butez; Couto, Ramón, Chalobah, Valle; Milla, Da Cunha; J. Rodríguez, Nico Paz, Baturina; Douvikas.
Probable lineup Manchester United: Lammens; Yoro’s replacement (suspended, to be confirmed), Maguire, Martínez, Dalot; Tielemans, Baleba; Diallo, Fernandes, Cunha; Mbeumo.
Free Champions League Prediction: Como vs Manchester United
Our prediction: Como to win at 2.39
United have won one of their last ten Champions League away games and haven’t won in five matches in all competitions. Their attack has produced 0.8 goals per game over that run, and they arrive without Yoro and Šeško.
Como have the better recent results, including wins at Napoli and Genoa and a 4-1 win over Leipzig in their only home Champions League game. Diao’s injury costs them a scorer, but Douvikas, Baturina and Perrone have all scored in Europe already.
A United win at around 2.81 to 2.97 is the outcome we consider least likely of the three. The best price on Como is 2.39, with the average around 2.27, and we’d take the home win at either figure.
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