- 1 Napoli vs Bodø/Glimt: the Norwegians arrive in better shape than the hosts
- 2 Napoli: three European defeats in a row and a coach who has lost eight of his last nine in this competition
- 3 Bodø/Glimt: six straight home wins in Europe, but they’ve conceded in 17 straight away games
- 4 Free Champions League Prediction: Napoli vs Bodø/Glimt
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Napoli vs Bodø/Glimt: the Norwegians arrive in better shape than the hosts 
Napoli have lost five of their first nine matches in all competitions this season, their worst start in 25 years. The latest came on Saturday, a 1-0 defeat at Venezia, four days after Villarreal beat them 3-1 in the Champions League.
That leaves Massimiliano Allegri’s side 32nd in the 36-team league phase with no points from two games. They lost 1-0 at home to Arsenal on matchday one before the trip to Spain, and Rrahmani’s goal at Villarreal is their only one in the competition so far.
Bodø/Glimt come to the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona on four straight wins. They beat Borussia Dortmund 1-0 at home last Wednesday, won 2-0 at HamKam on Saturday and sit top of the Eliteserien on 56 points, level with Viking and 17 clear of Tromsø in third.
The two clubs have never met in a competitive fixture. Napoli’s only previous games against Norwegian opposition were two wins in a Cup Winners’ Cup tie in 1976, while Bodø have won once in eight visits to Italy, at Inter’s San Siro last season.
Kick-off is 20:00 UK time on Tuesday 20 October. The market still has Napoli as clear favourites, between 1.57 and 1.65 for the home win, and we think that price leans on the badge more than on the last six weeks. Our read points towards goals at both ends.
Napoli: three European defeats in a row and a coach who has lost eight of his last nine in this competition 
Allegri has lost eight of his last nine Champions League matches as a head coach. Napoli themselves finished 30th of 36 in last season’s league phase, and they’re still waiting for their 100th win in European competition after three straight defeats.
Home advantage hasn’t counted for much at the Maradona this season: Como won 2-1 there in Serie A and Arsenal left with a 1-0 win in September, although the home side did beat Bologna 1-0 and Frosinone 3-0 in between.
Kevin De Bruyne leads the side with three league goals and an assist, and he has seven goal involvements in his last ten games for club and country. Rasmus Højlund has two in Serie A. Both started on the bench at Venezia, where Napoli failed to score against a side that hadn’t taken a league point all season before Saturday, and Højlund is expected back in the side on Tuesday.
Højlund’s European output has dropped off sharply since his early run in the competition. He scored seven times in his first eight Champions League appearances, but he has one goal in seven since.
David Neres (muscle), Alessandro Buongiorno, Vergara and Favasuli are all out, and Alisson Santos is a doubt after picking up a knock on Saturday. Mathías Olivera and Anguissa are fit again, which gives Allegri more options in the wide defensive roles and in midfield.
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Bodø/Glimt: six straight home wins in Europe, but they’ve conceded in 17 straight away games 
Kjetil Knutsen’s side have won nine and lost two of their last 13 European matches. The Dortmund result was their sixth consecutive home win in UEFA competition, and it took them to 24th in the table on three points.
Their record on the road in Europe reads very differently. Bodø have conceded in each of their last 17 European away games, and they lost 5-0 at Bayern Munich on matchday one. Across all competitions they’ve let in at least one goal in seven straight matches.
Their attack keeps the scoreboard moving at the other end. Bodø put six past Rana in the Norwegian Cup on 1 October, beat Kristiansund 3-1 in the league and scored two at HamKam on Saturday. None of their last 34 European fixtures has finished 0-0.
Kasper Høgh has six league goals, and Jens Petter Hauge and Ole Didrik Blomberg have five each. Helmersen, the club’s top scorer with 12 in the Eliteserien, is available again, and he and Blomberg have two goals apiece in this season’s Champions League. Hauge was rested on Saturday and should start; he scored against Napoli for AC Milan in November 2020.
Håkon Evjen, scorer of four league goals, misses out along with Mikkelsen. Bjørtuft is available again after serving the ban from his red card in Munich, and Fet is also back in contention.
Probable lineup Napoli: Milinković-Savić; Marín, Rrahmani, Badiashile; Di Lorenzo, Lobotka, McTominay, Spinazzola; Politano, De Bruyne; Højlund.
Probable lineup Bodø/Glimt: Haikin; Sjøvold, Gundersen, Aleesami, Bjørkan; Auklend, Berg, Fet; Blomberg, Helmersen, Hauge.
Free Champions League Prediction: Napoli vs Bodø/Glimt
Our prediction: Both teams to score at 1.53
We’d build this pick on Bodø’s away record. A side that has conceded in 17 consecutive European away games, and in each of its last seven matches overall, is facing a Napoli attack with De Bruyne and Højlund both in the predicted starting line-up after being rested at Venezia.
The other half of the bet rests on Napoli’s defending. They’ve lost at home to Como and Arsenal already, conceded three at Villarreal, and now face a team with no goalless draw in 34 European matches and Helmersen available again. Bodø scored three in each of their qualifying games against NEC and Union Saint-Gilloise.
Napoli might well win the game, but at 1.57 to 1.65 the home price asks a lot of a side that has lost five of nine. Both teams to score at 1.53 covers the scenario we consider most likely. For those who want a second line, over 2.5 goals is available at 1.50.
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