- 1 Kasimpasa vs Samsunspor: Bjelica’s first game, against a side that keeps drawing at home
- 2 Kasimpasa: one defeat in seven, every point at home from a draw
- 3 Samsunspor: one goal in five defeats, and a new manager’s first game
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Kasimpasa vs Samsunspor
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Kasimpasa vs Samsunspor: Bjelica’s first game, against a side that keeps drawing at home 
Samsunspor have lost their last five Süper Lig games, and the run cost Thorsten Fink his job. Nenad Bjelica, who managed Trabzonspor in 2023, takes charge for the first time on Sunday at the Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadium.
In that run Samsunspor lost 2-0 at home to Fenerbahce, 1-0 at Kocaelispor, 5-1 at home to Corum, 1-0 at BB Erzurumspor and 3-0 at home to Trabzonspor before the international break. They scored once in those five games.
Their only league win came before all that, 2-0 at Caykur Rizespor. With four points from seven games they’re 17th, and their goal difference of minus nine is built on 15 goals conceded, more than two a game.
Kasimpasa are in a far more comfortable place, ninth with ten points and a goal difference of zero. Emre Belozoglu’s side have lost only once, 3-1 at Galatasaray, but there’s an odd gap in their record: they haven’t won at home. All three home league games have been draws, including 2-2 with Amed SK and 0-0 with Konyaspor.
The market can’t separate the sides by much. Kasimpasa are 2.35 to win, the draw is 3.30 and Samsunspor are 2.65, a short price for a team on five straight defeats, and one that reflects the weight being placed on the managerial change.
Bjelica’s contract runs to the end of the 2026-27 season with an option for another year. Kick-off is at 11:30 UK time on Sunday 18 October, in round eight.
Kasimpasa: one defeat in seven, every point at home from a draw 
Both of Kasimpasa’s league wins have come on the road, 1-0 at Corum and 2-1 at Genclerbirligi, and they also drew 1-1 at Basaksehir. That’s seven points from four away games, with the defeat at Galatasaray the only one of the season. The two wins were both settled by a single goal, which fits a side that averages 1.1 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per game.
The home record is harder to explain. Three draws from three, from a side that has scored eight and conceded eight overall, point to a team that’s difficult to beat but hasn’t yet found a way to break visitors down in front of its own supporters.
Adrian Benedyczak has four of those eight goals and remains the main threat, although he’s gone two games without scoring. Demirbay and Baldursson are expected to sit in front of the back four, with Rak-Sakyi, Mendes and Kol behind the striker.
Kamil Ahmet Corekci is out until November with an Achilles problem, and Mortadha Ben Ouanes is doubtful with a muscle injury. Winck and Karapo are expected to start in the full-back positions.
The head-to-head is the one record that doesn’t help Belozoglu. Kasimpasa have lost their last two home games against Samsunspor, 1-0 and 4-1.
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Samsunspor: one goal in five defeats, and a new manager’s first game 
Five straight defeats have left Samsunspor 17th, and the attack is the main reason. Six goals in seven league games, and one in the last five, leaves Bjelica with an obvious first job.
Mohamed Bayo, a summer signing from Lille, was supposed to help with that and is still waiting for his first goal of the season. He’s expected to lead the line again, with Coulibaly, Kilinc and Sekongo behind him and Watt and Kayan in central midfield.
The squad is short in places too. Jaures Assoumou is expected to stay out with a muscle injury, and Celil Yuksel is doubtful after going off before the half-hour mark against Trabzonspor. Kocuk is expected in goal behind a back four of Mendes, Cift, Guarino and Tomasson, the unit that has conceded 15 times in seven games.
Bjelica knows the league from his spell at Trabzonspor, and his first decisions will likely be about structure. A side that has conceded 15 in seven games, including five at home to Corum, needs to stop losing heavily before it can think about winning regularly.
There’s some evidence they can stay in games away from home. Apart from the 2-0 win at Rizespor, their two league trips in this run ended in 1-0 defeats, at Kocaelispor and at BB Erzurumspor.
Probable lineup Kasimpasa: Gianniotis; Winck, Mouanga, Ilie, Karapo; Demirbay, Baldursson; Rak-Sakyi, Mendes, Kol; Benedyczak
Probable lineup Samsunspor: Kocuk; Mendes, Cift, Guarino, Tomasson; Watt, Kayan; Coulibaly, Kilinc, Sekongo; Bayo
Free Football Prediction: Kasimpasa vs Samsunspor
Our prediction: Kasimpasa draw no bet (odds 1.80)
Kasimpasa draw no bet at 1.80. The home side have lost once in seven, Samsunspor have lost five in a row and scored once in that run, and the stake comes back if Kasimpasa’s habit of drawing at home continues.
The case for Samsunspor rests on two things: a new manager’s first game, and a head-to-head record that includes two straight wins at this stadium. Both carry weight, and they’re why I’d rather not take the straight home win at 2.35.
Draw no bet covers the outcome this ground has produced three times already this season. A Kasimpasa win pays 1.80, a draw returns the stake, and only a first Samsunspor win in six league games beats the selection. For a second angle, under 2.5 goals is available at 1.85, with Samsunspor having scored once in five matches and only two of those five games, the 5-1 against Corum and the 3-0 against Trabzonspor, going past two goals.
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