- 1 Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig: a perfect home record against a side that can’t win on the road
- 2 Bayern Munich: 17 goals in three home games, but two draws on the bounce
- 3 RB Leipzig: unbeatable at home, beaten every time they’ve travelled since August
- 4 Free Bundesliga Prediction: Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig: a perfect home record against a side that can’t win on the road 
Seventeen goals scored, one conceded. That’s Bayern Munich at the Allianz Arena this season, three league games and three wins, and it’s the number that frames Saturday’s meeting with RB Leipzig (18:30 Paris time).
On paper, this is the Bundesliga’s headline fixture of matchday six. The league’s two highest-scoring teams go head to head, and the table gives it extra weight: Bayern are third on 11 points, two behind Borussia Dortmund and surprise leaders Freiburg, while Leipzig sit fifth on nine.
Both sides arrive with very different moods. Bayern are still unbeaten in all competitions, but October has been awkward. A 2-2 draw at Augsburg was followed by a 3-3 in Norway on Tuesday, where they came from two down to lead Viking FK, saw Michael Olise sent off, then conceded a 90th-minute equaliser to Herman Johan Haugen.
Leipzig, by contrast, are on a mini-run. A 6-0 thrashing of Eintracht Frankfurt in the league was followed by a 1-0 win over PSV in the Champions League, their first back-to-back victories since August.
So which version of each side turns up? That’s the question, and the answer probably depends on the venue more than anything else.
Leipzig have won every home match this season across all competitions without conceding a goal at the Red Bull Arena. Away from it, they’ve lost all three trips since an opening-round cup rout of Eintracht Trier on August 22. Werder Bremen beat them 3-1, Leverkusen 2-0 and Como 4-1.
The head-to-head doesn’t help them either. Leipzig haven’t beaten Bayern since the German Super Cup in August 2023, a stretch of five competitive defeats and two draws.
Bayern Munich: 17 goals in three home games, but two draws on the bounce 
Vincent Kompany’s side haven’t won since the international break. For most clubs that would be a small blip. At Bayern, two draws in a row are enough to make people ask questions.
Still, look at what they’ve done at home. A 5-1 against Stuttgart, a 7-0 demolition of Union Berlin and a 5-0 over Bodo/Glimt in the Champions League. When this team plays at the Allianz, it doesn’t just win: it buries people.
The away results tell a slightly different story. A goalless draw at Schalke, a nervy 2-1 at Elversberg and the 2-2 at Augsburg. That’s where the dropped points have come from, and it’s a pattern worth noting because Saturday isn’t an away game.
Jamal Musiala is still out with a thigh problem, so Ismael Saibari is expected to play the number 10 role behind Harry Kane, with Olise and Luis Diaz on the flanks. Olise’s red card came in Europe, so he’s available here.
The bigger question mark sits in goal. Manuel Neuer missed training on Thursday with the foot injury that kept him out in Norway, which means Jonas Urbig could keep his place. A change in goal rarely helps, but Leipzig haven’t scored much on the road to test it.
Joshua Kimmich and Aleksandar Pavlovic should anchor midfield. That pairing gives Bayern control, and control is exactly what they lacked late on in Stavanger.
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RB Leipzig: unbeatable at home, beaten every time they’ve travelled since August 
Martin Demichelis has built two different teams. One plays at the Red Bull Arena and hasn’t conceded there all season. The other goes on the road and keeps coming home empty-handed.
The home numbers are excellent. A 3-0 over Borussia Monchengladbach, 5-0 over Hamburg, 6-0 over Frankfurt, then the narrow win over PSV, where they survived a missed penalty from Ivan Perisic early on. That’s real quality.
Away from home, though, the defence simply doesn’t hold. Three goals at Bremen, two at Leverkusen, four at Como. Ten conceded in three away defeats is the kind of record that takes some explaining for a side with Champions League ambitions.
Not a great time to visit Munich.
The injury list doesn’t help. Midfielders Christoph Baumgartner (hamstring) and Assan Ouedraogo (shoulder) are out, which hands the double pivot to Ezechiel Banzuzi and Neil El Aynaoui. Striker Marc Guiu is also sidelined with a hamstring injury, so Romulo leads the line again.
The main threat is Christopher Nkunku, Leipzig’s top scorer in the Bundesliga with four goals. He’ll need help, and against a Bayern side that has let in one goal at home all season, chances will be scarce.
Probable lineup Bayern Munich: Urbig; Stanisic, Upamecano, Tah, Davies; Kimmich, Pavlovic; Olise, Saibari, Diaz; Kane
Probable lineup RB Leipzig: Vandevoordt; Baku, Orban, Lukeba, Raum; Banzuzi, El Aynaoui; Gruda, Nkunku, Nusa; Romulo
Free Bundesliga Prediction: Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig
Our prediction: Bayern Munich leading at half-time and winning at full-time (HT/FT Bayern/Bayern) @ 1.67
A straight Bayern win is priced around 1.22, which offers very little. The half-time/full-time market is where the value sits. Bayern have been blowing teams away early at the Allianz, and three home wins by an aggregate 17-1 don’t leave much room for slow starts.
Leipzig’s away pattern points the same way. They’ve conceded at least twice in each of their three road defeats and haven’t shown they can keep a stronger side quiet for 45 minutes. Bayern, stung by two draws, will come out fast.
Seven games without a win against Bayern, three away defeats on the bounce, and two key midfielders missing. The case builds quickly: Bayern ahead at the break, Bayern winners at the whistle.
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