- 1 AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Be’er Sheva: an unbeaten home record against a visitor with no home of its own
- 2 AZ Alkmaar: 16 home games unbeaten, but only one win from their last four
- 3 Hapoel Be’er Sheva: four clean sheets running, but five conceded against Sabah
- 4 Free Europa League Prediction: AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Be’er Sheva
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Be’er Sheva: an unbeaten home record against a visitor with no home of its own 
AZ Alkmaar haven’t lost at the AFAS Stadion since January. Sixteen matches have passed since NEC beat them 3-1, and that run is the first thing Hapoel Be’er Sheva have to deal with on Thursday (18:45 Paris time).
Both clubs are still looking for a first win in this Europa League phase. AZ went to Sunderland on matchday one and lost 1-0, a result that ended a 19-match unbeaten run and handed them their first defeat of the season in any competition. Hapoel drew 0-0 with Dinamo Zagreb in Bucharest.
That venue tells its own story. Because of the Gaza war, Israeli clubs are playing their European home games at neutral grounds. For Ran Kozuch’s side, it means there’s no home advantage at any point of this campaign. Every game is an away game, in practice.
AZ, meanwhile, arrive with a slightly bruised feeling. They went top of the Eredivisie before the international break with a 1-0 win over Telstar, then lost 2-0 at Feyenoord on Sunday. It was their first league defeat in seven months. They’re now joint second with PSV, one point off the top.
The market makes AZ heavy favourites, with prices around 1.22 to 1.28 and Hapoel out at 10.50. Too short to back outright. The question is whether AZ can win this comfortably, and that’s where it gets interesting.
AZ Alkmaar: 16 home games unbeaten, but only one win from their last four 
Before the Feyenoord defeat, AZ had won six of their first seven Eredivisie games. The 5-2 win over Go Ahead Eagles and a 3-2 victory at Heerenveen showed what this attack can do when it’s flowing.
Lately it hasn’t been flowing. One win in four in all competitions: a 1-1 draw with promoted Willem II, the 1-0 loss at Sunderland, the narrow win over Telstar, then Feyenoord. Leeroy Echteld’s side have scored twice in those four games. That’s a dip. It isn’t a crisis.
The home record is what keeps the case strong. Sixteen unbeaten at the AFAS Stadion, against a visiting side that won’t have any crowd behind them. AZ know how to play in this stadium.
Mexx Meerdink is the player in form. He scored twice for the Netherlands against Serbia during the international break and has three goals and two assists in the Eredivisie. Ro-Zangelo Daal has four league goals, though he hasn’t scored or assisted in his last three matches. Valdemar Byskov offers another option in the attacking line.
Stije Resink is out with a cruciate ligament injury. Beyond that, AZ came through the Feyenoord game without fresh problems.
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Hapoel Be’er Sheva: four clean sheets running, but five conceded against Sabah 
Four games, zero goals conceded. Hapoel Be’er Sheva’s defence is in good shape right now, and that run includes the 0-0 with Dinamo Zagreb and three straight league wins: 2-0 at Hapoel Petah Tikva, 1-0 against Kiryat Shmona and 2-0 at Ironi Tiberias at the weekend.
Look further back and the picture is less settled. In the qualifying rounds they won four and lost two of six matches, and one of those defeats was a 5-2 hammering by Sabah in the playoff round. That’s the result that dropped them into this competition. Earlier in the league season they also lost 4-1 at home to Maccabi Tel Aviv.
So which version turns up in Alkmaar? The tight, organised side of the last month, or the one that can concede in bunches against a quality opponent? The honest answer is that we haven’t seen them tested at this level recently.
Squad news is mostly positive. Djibril Diop and Eliel Peretz are both back after serving suspensions for their red cards against Sabah. Peretz has two league goals and an assist, as many as anyone in the squad. Dan Biton remains out with a heart issue.
Kozuch will set his side up to stay compact and hit on the break. That plan has worked domestically. Away at a side that hasn’t lost at home in nine months, it’s a much tougher ask.
Probable lineup AZ Alkmaar: De Busser; Dijkstra, Goes, Schouten, Chavez; Clasie, Koopmeiners; Oufkir, Byskov, Daal; Meerdink
Probable lineup Hapoel Be’er Sheva: Marciano; Mizrahi, Diop, Vitor, Amador; Amankwah, Ventura, Peretz; East, Zlatanovic, Victor
Free Europa League Prediction: AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Be’er Sheva
Our prediction: AZ Alkmaar -1.5 handicap (AZ to win by two or more goals)
AZ’s 16-match unbeaten home run is the foundation here, and Hapoel’s lack of any real home advantage this season removes one of the few things that could level the game. The straight win is priced around 1.22 to 1.28, far too short to recommend, so we’re looking at the margin instead.
Hapoel’s recent clean sheets came against Israeli league sides and a Dinamo Zagreb team that couldn’t break them down. When they’ve faced stronger attacks this season, the defence has cracked: five conceded to Sabah, four to Maccabi Tel Aviv. AZ, with Meerdink in form and an attack that put five past Go Ahead Eagles, have the quality to open them up.
The risk is AZ’s recent dip in front of goal, two in four games. Still, at home and needing a first European win, we expect them to respond. AZ to win by two or more is our pick.
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