- 1 Rennes vs OFI Crete: a coach with no European wins meets a side with no European goals conceded
- 2 Rennes: ten home league goals in four games, and a finishing problem in Europe to fix
- 3 OFI Crete: three European wins without conceding, but the Greek form has dipped
- 4 Free Europa League Prediction: Rennes vs OFI Crete
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Rennes vs OFI Crete: a coach with no European wins meets a side with no European goals conceded 
Seventeen Europa League matches. Not one win. That’s Franck Haise’s personal record in this competition, and it’s the strangest number hanging over Thursday night at Roazhon Park.
On the domestic front, Rennes look nothing like a side with a European hang-up. They’re third in Ligue 1, one point behind leaders Monaco, and they’ve lost once in seven competitive outings this season. At home they’ve been ruthless: ten goals in four league games at Roazhon Park.
OFI Crete arrive with the opposite profile. Their European record this season is spotless: three matches, three wins, seven goals scored and none conceded. That run includes a 2-0 win over Hoffenheim on matchday one, the night the Cretans properly announced themselves.
The data paints a specific picture here. OFI have been excellent in Europe and shaky at home in Greece since, taking one point from their last two league games, the most recent a 3-0 defeat at AEK Athens. Rennes, meanwhile, just put four past Auxerre.
Kick-off is at 21:00 Paris time on Thursday 15 October, matchday two of the league phase. Rennes sit 17th after their opening draw, OFI eighth after their win. Does that gap in the standings reflect the gap in quality? Not really.
The market doesn’t think so either. Rennes are priced as short as 1.27 for the win, with OFI out at 10.50. That makes the straight home win a poor price, so the real question is how Rennes win, not whether.
Rennes: ten home league goals in four games, and a finishing problem in Europe to fix 
Rennes didn’t lack chances in Graz. They lacked a finish. Over 60% possession, 23 shots, and a 0-0 draw at Sturm Graz on 16 September. For the sharpest attack in Ligue 1, that night takes some explaining.
The domestic numbers tell a very different story. Esteban Lepaul struck twice in Sunday’s 4-1 thrashing of Auxerre, and the France international is the obvious focal point of a forward line that’s been the most productive in the division. Ten goals in four home league games. That’s the reference point.
There’s one blemish worth flagging. The defeat at Lyon on 19 September was heavy, and Quentin Merlin hasn’t made a squad since, with Mahamadou Nagida taking the left-back spot against Auxerre. Haise isn’t shy about making changes when a performance falls short.
Eliezer Mayenda, a summer arrival from Sunderland, has had a bit-part role so far but could get a rare start here. With a crowded schedule, that’s a rotation Haise can afford against this opponent.
Four wins, two draws and one defeat from seven competitive games. A side that knows what it’s about.
And then there’s that Europa League record. Seventeen games without a win for Haise in this competition is an odd stat for a coach whose team is scoring freely at home. It won’t last forever, and Thursday looks like the night it ends.
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OFI Crete: three European wins without conceding, but the Greek form has dipped 
Aaron Iseka won’t be in Brittany. The forward is out for a few weeks with a thigh injury, and he’s not the only absentee: Christos Sielis is recovering from his own thigh problem and long-serving Nikos Marinakis hasn’t played a minute this season.
That’s a thin squad heading into the toughest away trip of their season. And yet OFI’s European campaign so far has been close to flawless. A five-goal aggregate win over CSKA Sofia in qualifying, then a 2-0 win over Hoffenheim, with former Barcelona youngster Aitor Cantalapiedra on the scoresheet.
This is a club that won the Greek Cup in April, its first major trophy in nearly four decades. Christos Kontis, approaching a full year in charge after short spells at Olympiacos, Volos and Panathinaikos, has built a compact side that’s comfortable without the ball.
The problem is what’s happened since Hoffenheim. A 2-2 draw with Asteras Tripolis, then a 3-0 defeat at AEK Athens. One point from six. That makes uncomfortable reading ahead of a trip to a ground where Rennes have averaged two and a half goals a game in the league.
Those European clean sheets came with the comfort of Heraklion or against limited opposition. On the road, against a side with this much firepower, the low block will be tested for 90 minutes. It’s hard to see it holding.
Probable lineup Rennes: Samba; Reynolds, Cresswell, Rouault, Nagida; Thomasson, Rongier, Camara; Mayenda, Soumare, Lepaul
Probable lineup OFI Crete: Christogeorgos; Kostoulas, Poungouras, Krizmanic; Dickmann, Kanellopoulos, Bouchalakis, Athanasiou; Nuss, Cantalapiedra, Kodro
Free Europa League Prediction: Rennes vs OFI Crete
Our prediction: Rennes to win and over 2.5 goals in the match
Rennes at 1.27 isn’t worth touching on its own. Combining the home win with over 2.5 goals gives the selection some substance, and the numbers back both legs: ten goals in four home league matches, four against Auxerre on Sunday, and a Greek side that’s just shipped three at AEK.
OFI’s European clean sheets deserve respect, but they came against CSKA Sofia and a Hoffenheim side in poor shape. Roazhon Park is a different level of pressure, and the visitors are without Iseka and Sielis. Once Rennes score first, OFI have to come out, and that’s when the gaps appear.
The Haise stat is the only real argument against. Seventeen without a win in Europe is strange, but Graz was a finishing problem, not a creation problem. Against a weaker side at home, those 23 shots turn into goals. We’re backing Rennes to win in a game with three or more goals.
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