- 1 Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz: a first European night at the Vitality against a side built to absorb pressure
- 2 Bournemouth: winless in the league, but lethal on the break in Europe
- 3 Sturm Graz: 23 shots faced against Rennes and not one went in
- 4 Free Europa League Prediction: Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz: a first European night at the Vitality against a side built to absorb pressure 
Bournemouth have never hosted a European match. That changes on Thursday night at the Vitality Stadium, where Marco Rose’s side welcome Sturm Graz on matchday two of the Europa League league phase. Kick-off is at 21:00 Paris time.
The context around the Cherries is a strange one. In Europe, they’ve been close to perfect: a 2-1 win at Real Sociedad on their debut, with both goals arriving inside the first 20 minutes. In the Premier League, it’s a different story. Six games, no wins, and a 5-1 beating at Chelsea on Saturday that makes for uncomfortable reading.
Sturm Graz arrive with a very different profile. They held Rennes to a 0-0 draw on matchday one with just 38% of the ball, facing 23 shots and conceding none. Then came a 3-0 defeat at Salzburg, with all three goals going in after the 70th minute, before a 2-0 win at Austria Wien at the weekend steadied things.
So which Bournemouth turns up? The side that hit Sociedad on the break was ruthless: 42% possession, three shots on target, two goals. The side that’s lost to Liverpool and Chelsea in its last two outings has looked short of answers at the back.
There’s no history to lean on either. This is the first competitive meeting between the clubs, so form, availability and style carry all the weight.
The prices have already picked a side. Bournemouth sit at around 1.20 to win, which tells you how wide the gap in quality is seen to be. The more interesting question is whether Sturm can find a goal of their own on the south coast.
Bournemouth: winless in the league, but lethal on the break in Europe 
Two of the men who made the Sociedad win happen won’t be on the pitch. Justin Kluivert, who opened the scoring in San Sebastián, and Alex Scott, whose cross set up the second goal, are both ruled out. That’s a real loss for a side that relies on quick, precise moves through midfield.
Rayan stays, and that matters. The young Brazilian headed in the second goal in Spain and gives Rose a direct runner who can stretch a back line. Evanilson should lead the line, with Marcus Tavernier and David Brooks the likely options either side of Rayan.
Lewis Cook is in line for a start. He was on the bench at Stamford Bridge, and his return would give the midfield a calmer head alongside Tyler Adams. After shipping five on Saturday, a bit of control in the middle of the park can’t hurt.
The league numbers don’t bear close inspection. Three draws from the first four games, then defeats to Liverpool (1-0) and Chelsea (5-1). Bournemouth have now conceded 13 league goals in six matches. That’s a back line under real strain.
Here’s the key thing about this team, though: it’s been built to punish space. Against Sociedad, they were happy to sit deeper once ahead and made their few chances count. At home, against a visitor that’ll happily defend in numbers, they’ll need a different approach. Can they find it? Probably, given the gap in quality, but it may take a while.
The occasion should help. A first European night in front of their own fans is the kind of evening that can carry a squad through a sticky spell.
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Sturm Graz: 23 shots faced against Rennes and not one went in 
Twenty-three shots faced, five on target, nothing conceded. That was Sturm’s night against Rennes, and goalkeeper Daniil Khudyakov was the main reason the clean sheet held.
That match tells you what Fabio Ingolitsch’s side are comfortable doing. They’ll give up the ball, stay compact and trust their shape. A side that knows what it’s about. The trouble starts when that shape cracks late, as it did at Salzburg, where three goals went in after the 70th minute and Jürgen Heil was sent off for a second yellow card.
The weekend win at Austria Wien was a useful response. Oumar Diakité scored both goals in the 2-0 away victory and is expected to start up front on Thursday. Before that game, Sturm sat fourth in the Austrian Bundesliga with 11 points from seven matches.
The absentee list is long, though. Otar Kiteishvili, Gizo Mamageishvili, Nelson Weiper and Filip Rózga are all listed as out, while Seedy Jatta was ruled out for several weeks after shoulder surgery in September. Kiteishvili’s absence hurts most. He’s usually the one who keeps the ball when Sturm finally win it back.
Simon Seidl is the creative outlet that’s left. He led the Austrian league in assists with five before the Salzburg game, and if Bournemouth push their full-backs high, he’s the player who can find a runner in behind.
One stat sticks out. Sturm still haven’t scored in this league phase. A single goal on Thursday would already count as progress.
Probable lineup Bournemouth: Petrović; Smith, Hill, António Silva, Truffert; Adams, Cook; Tavernier, Rayan, Brooks; Evanilson
Probable lineup Sturm Graz: Khudyakov; Koller, Quarshie, Vallci; Balbo, Stanković, Matoshi, Weinhandl, Heil; Beganović, Diakité
Free Europa League Prediction: Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz
Our prediction: Both teams to score (1.95)
Bournemouth should win this, and the price at 1.20 says the same. That’s too short to be worth backing on its own, so we’re looking at how the goals are likely to fall. The hosts have scored in Europe and have a forward line, even without Kluivert, that should create plenty against a side missing four attackers and creators.
The other half of the bet rests on that Bournemouth defence. Thirteen league goals conceded in six games, six of them in the last two matches. Sturm only need one moment from Diakité or Seidl, and they showed at Austria Wien that they can still finish chances away from home.
The risk is obvious: Sturm sit deep, get a clean sheet’s worth of luck again, and lose 2-0. We think this Bournemouth back line is too loose for that. Both teams to score at 1.95 is our call.
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