- 1 Benfica vs Celtic: nine wins in ten against a side still chasing its first European point
- 2 Benfica: 24 league goals in eight games and unbeaten at home in the league for over a year
- 3 Celtic: one win in five and a European campaign that starts from zero
- 4 Free Europa League Prediction: Benfica vs Celtic
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Benfica vs Celtic: nine wins in ten against a side still chasing its first European point 
Nine wins from their last ten matches in all competitions. That’s the form Benfica carry into Thursday night at the Estádio da Luz, with kick-off set for 21:00 Paris time on matchday two of the Europa League league phase.
Celtic’s numbers point the other way. Martin O’Neill’s side were beaten 3-1 at home by Ferencváros on matchday one, and that defeat sat in the middle of a three-game losing run before the international break. Sunday’s 2-0 win at Motherwell stopped the slide. It didn’t change the picture in Europe, where Celtic still have zero points and a negative goal difference.
The data paints a specific picture here. Benfica opened their campaign with a 2-0 win at AC Milan, at San Siro, a result that tells you everything you need to know about how comfortable this squad is away from home on a European night. Celtic, meanwhile, couldn’t protect their own ground against a Ferencváros side that created chance after chance.
There’s history between these two, and it isn’t one-sided. This will be the ninth meeting between the clubs and the first in this competition. The previous eight all came in the European Cup or the Champions League: Celtic won four, Benfica three, and one finished level.
So does history count for anything on Thursday? Not much. Those meetings belong to different squads and different eras. What counts is the gap between a Benfica side scoring three a game in their league and a Celtic team that’s lost four of its last six competitive fixtures.
The prices reflect that gap. Benfica sit at 1.25 to win, the draw at 6.00 and Celtic at 11.00.
Benfica: 24 league goals in eight games and unbeaten at home in the league for over a year 
Break down the numbers and a clear edge emerges. Eight league games into the season, Marco Silva’s side have six wins, one draw and one defeat. They’ve scored 24 and conceded seven, with four clean sheets and average possession of 63.4%. That isn’t a team grinding out results. It’s a team controlling matches.
The one blemish came before the break. Benfica lost 3-1 at Porto, a result that ended a 55-match unbeaten run in the league. Last season they went the entire league campaign without defeat and still finished third, eight points off the champions, because they drew 11 of their 34 games. The lesson seems to have been learned. This side kills games off now.
They bounced back straight away. A 2-0 win over Vitória at the weekend made it clear the Porto defeat hadn’t left a mark.
The home record is where the case builds. Over the last 12 months, Benfica have played 17 home league games: 11 wins, six draws, no defeats, 41 goals scored and 13 conceded. Not a great place to visit. The one caveat is European football, where Qarabağ, Bayer Leverkusen and Real Madrid have all won at the Estádio da Luz since the start of last season. That’s a real weakness, but Celtic aren’t in that bracket right now.
There’s one absence that matters. Enzo Barrenechea is out until next month with a knee injury, and Jakub Kaminski is a big doubt after picking up a thigh problem on international duty. Losing a midfield anchor and a creative wide player in the same week isn’t ideal. Still, a squad that’s just won at San Siro has the depth to cover both.
no renewal
Free for 2 weeks.
Celtic: one win in five and a European campaign that starts from zero 
Three straight defeats before the international break. Two of them came against Rangers, the other was that 3-1 home loss to Ferencváros in which Bamidele Yusuf set up all three goals for the Hungarians. That record makes for uncomfortable reading at a club used to dominating domestically.
The 2-0 win at Motherwell on Sunday was solid and nothing more. O’Neill got the clean sheet he needed. He didn’t get any evidence that this side can handle a team of Benfica’s quality away from home.
There’s a boost in midfield. Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain has served a three-game European suspension and is available again, which gives O’Neill a more experienced option in the middle of the park. Against a team that averages over 63% of the ball, Celtic can ill afford to be short of legs or know-how in that area.
Jota won’t be there, though. The winger returned from 18 months out injured against Motherwell, but he isn’t in Celtic’s Europa League squad. So he’ll miss a return to his former club and Celtic lose one of the few players capable of turning a defensive night into a counter-attacking one.
The atmosphere around the club doesn’t help either. The Green Brigade have announced a boycott of the remaining Europa League home matches and any Scottish Cup ties. That won’t affect Thursday directly, but it tells you the mood isn’t settled. A side in that frame of mind, travelling to a ground where Benfica haven’t lost a league game in a year, has a long night ahead.
Probable lineup Benfica: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Celtic: Not announced at time of publication
Free Europa League Prediction: Benfica vs Celtic
Our prediction: Benfica to win by two or more goals (-1.5 handicap)
The straight win at 1.25 is too short to back on its own, so we’re asking Benfica to do what they’ve done all season: win with room to spare. Twenty-four goals in eight league games, 41 home league goals in 12 months and a 2-0 at San Siro all point to a side that doesn’t just edge games.
Celtic’s recent defence doesn’t bear close inspection. They conceded three at home to Ferencváros and lost twice to Rangers in the same stretch. Without Jota and with a squad that’s only just stopped losing, it’s hard to see them keeping Benfica to a single goal for 90 minutes.
The risk is Benfica’s European home record, which has slipped against top opposition. Celtic aren’t top opposition right now. Check your bookmaker’s handicap price before kick-off, as it wasn’t listed in the markets we consulted at time of writing.
in your pocket.
Real-time notifications & alerts
_________
About our free predictions
- What we publish on MathOdds are analyses, nothing more. We share a view, a reading of the moment, but never a guarantee. Sport remains what it is: unpredictable. A red card, an injury, a last-minute goal, and the script changes completely.
- Let’s be clear: there is no such thing as a risk-free bet. Even when it looks “obvious”, nothing ever is. And yes, that means you can lose. It’s even inevitable at some point.
- The smartest approach is to stay reasonable. Bet small, set a budget and stick to it. Never use money you need to live on. And above all: don’t chase your losses, that rarely ends well.
- A bet should remain a game, not a job or a source of income. If it starts taking up too much space in your daily life, causes stress or frustration, take a break. And if needed, talk to a support organisation: that’s what they’re there for.
- Ultimately, responsibility lies with you. Reading our content means accepting that risk exists and will never disappear, no matter how good the analysis.
- Essential reminder: gambling is prohibited for minors and must comply with the laws of your country. Need help? Visit begambleaware.org.
No commitment from us
Our predictions carry no contractual value. They have no legal standing. In short: you cannot rely on them to claim anything if a bet doesn’t come through.
Information changes
A prediction is always based on what we know at the time of writing. But between publication and kick-off, a lineup can change, a player picks up an injury, the weather turns, and the analysis can quickly be outdated. We cannot be held responsible for that.
Your responsibility
Before placing a bet, simply check that gambling is legal in your country. If it isn’t, that’s your responsibility, not ours.
Responsible gambling
We can’t say it enough: gamble responsibly. If you’re struggling to stay in control, don’t wait to seek help.
Legal age
MathOdds content is intended for adults only. By browsing here, you confirm you meet the legal age requirement for gambling in your jurisdiction.
About visuals
The images and logos of Benfica and Celtic on MathOdds are used solely to illustrate our articles. They do not imply any official affiliation with a federation or sports organisation, and we claim no rights over them. Those rights belong to their original owners. If any visual raises a concern, contact us and it will be removed without delay.
Leave a Reply