- 1 Montreal Canadiens vs Detroit Red Wings: 33 goals in four Habs games and two penalty kills under water
- 2 Montreal Canadiens: 4.75 goals against per game and an emergency in the crease
- 3 Detroit Red Wings: Larkin back, DeBrincat scoring, but a 61.5% penalty kill and tired legs
- 4 Free NHL Prediction: Montreal Canadiens vs Detroit Red Wings
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
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Montreal Canadiens vs Detroit Red Wings: 33 goals in four Habs games and two penalty kills under water 
Thirty-three goals in four games. That’s the combined total in Montreal’s matches so far: 14 scored, 19 conceded. Whatever else happens at the Bell Centre on Saturday, the Canadiens haven’t played a quiet game yet.
Detroit are the visitors for this Original Six meeting, with puck drop at 7 PM ET, which is 01:00 Paris time on Sunday. The Red Wings hosted Seattle on Friday night, so they arrive on the second half of a back-to-back.
Montreal need a response. They’ve lost three straight, the latest a 5-2 home defeat to Nashville on Thursday in which they gave up five unanswered goals after leading. Before that, Carolina put six past them. The Canadiens are 1-2-1 and conceding 4.75 per game.
Detroit’s start has been quieter but not much steadier. Two losses, then a 5-3 win over Ottawa on Tuesday, with Dylan Larkin back in the lineup and Alex DeBrincat scoring twice.
Here’s what jumps out. Detroit’s penalty kill is working at 61.5%. Montreal’s sits at 70.6%. Neither team is stopping opponents with the extra man, and both have been taking enough penalties to make that matter.
Break down the numbers and a clear angle emerges. It isn’t about who wins. It’s about how many goals this game produces.
Montreal Canadiens: 4.75 goals against per game and an emergency in the crease 
Sam Montembeault got hurt in practice this week. That one injury reshaped Montreal’s situation, because Jacob Fowler was recalled and made his season debut against Nashville on Thursday. He finished with 15 saves as the Predators scored five times.
The goaltending change isn’t the whole story, though. Montreal have been conceding heavily all season, 4.75 goals per game on 27.8 shots against. That’s a team leaving its goaltenders exposed, not just one netminder having a bad week.
The Nashville loss followed a familiar pattern. Nick Suzuki and Alex Newhook gave Montreal an early lead, then the game slipped away, with Ryan O’Reilly’s late power-play goal breaking a third-period tie. Three losses in a row, and two of them featured five or more goals against.
Going forward, there’s no lack of talent. Suzuki, Cole Caufield, Juraj Slafkovsky, Zack Bolduc and Newhook give the Canadiens real speed, and they’re averaging 3.5 goals per game. The power play is the outlier at 7.7%.
A team that scores three and a half and concedes almost five. That tells you everything you need to know about how their games are going.
The penalty kill doesn’t help. At 70.6%, Montreal are giving up a goal on almost a third of opposition power plays, and Detroit’s unit is converting a quarter of its chances. Add a goaltender who’s only just been recalled, and the Canadiens’ defensive problems aren’t going away by Saturday.
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Detroit Red Wings: Larkin back, DeBrincat scoring, but a 61.5% penalty kill and tired legs 
Detroit’s win over Ottawa was the first sign this offence can click. Alex DeBrincat scored twice and added an assist, Dylan Larkin had a goal and an assist in his season debut, and Lucas Raymond set up three. Viktor Arvidsson and Justin Faulk each chipped in a goal and an assist.
That 5-3 win came after two games in which the Red Wings scored just twice in total. So which version shows up in Montreal? The shot numbers suggest the chances were always there: 31.3 per game is a healthy volume, even if the finishing lagged.
The worry is the penalty kill. At 61.5%, it makes for uncomfortable reading, and that’s before factoring in the injury reports featuring J.T. Compher, Mason Appleton and Marco Kasper. Fewer bodies means more minutes for the regulars, and more minutes means more mistakes.
Then there’s the schedule. Detroit played Seattle at home on Friday, travelled, and now face a Montreal side desperate to stop a three-game slide. Back-to-backs tend to loosen defensive structure late in games.
John Gibson stopped 22 of 25 against Ottawa. Respectable, not dominant. Detroit’s power play, at 25%, should find chances against a Montreal kill that’s struggling.
Not a recipe for a low-scoring night.
One more detail matters for the total. Detroit’s shot volume, 31.3 per game, is well above Montreal’s 25.8, and the Canadiens have been giving up 27.8 a night themselves. Plenty of pucks will be heading toward both nets.
Probable lineup Montreal Canadiens: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Detroit Red Wings: Not announced at time of publication
Free NHL Prediction: Montreal Canadiens vs Detroit Red Wings
Our prediction: Over 6.5 goals
Montreal’s games are averaging more than eight goals each, and the Canadiens are conceding 4.75 per game with their first-choice goaltender injured. Detroit, for their part, put five past Ottawa in their last completed outing before Friday and generate over 31 shots a night. Both sides have shown they can score.
The special teams make the case stronger. Detroit’s penalty kill is at 61.5% and Montreal’s at 70.6%, while the Red Wings’ power play is converting 25%. Any penalties in this game are likely to turn into goals, and with Detroit on the second night of a back-to-back, discipline and structure late in periods are both at risk.
We don’t have a strong view on the winner, which is exactly why the total is the cleaner angle. With porous defences, uncertainty in the Montreal crease and two weak penalty kills, Over 6.5 goals is our selection.
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