- 1 Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen: a lopsided history, and a recent run that flips it on its head
- 2 Ajax: 21 goals scored, but only one home league win from four
- 3 NEC Nijmegen: a thin squad, quiet forwards and a defence that keeps leaking
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen: a lopsided history, and a recent run that flips it on its head 
Ajax and NEC have met 109 times in official competition. Ajax have won 81 of them. NEC have won six. On paper, there’s barely a rivalry to speak of.
And yet NEC haven’t lost to Ajax in their last three league meetings. A 3-0 win in Amsterdam in May 2025, then a 2-2 draw in Nijmegen and a 1-1 draw at the Johan Cruijff ArenA in February. That’s the longest such run for NEC against Ajax since a sequence of three draws between December 2006 and January 2008.
Saturday’s game (kick-off 21:00 Paris time) brings these two together at a point where neither is where it wants to be. Ajax are fifth with 14 points from seven games. NEC are 11th on eight points and have won just three of their 12 matches in all competitions this season.
The gap in quality is obvious. So is the gap in form. But Ajax have a habit this season of making home games harder than they need to be, and that’s the thread worth pulling on.
Before the break, they had 33 shots against Excelsior and still only drew 2-2. The visitors scored with two of their four attempts. You can’t plan for that kind of night, but you can recognise a pattern.
How much does that history of recent draws really matter? Probably less than the injury lists. Both clubs are missing important players, and that changes the shape of this one.
Ajax: 21 goals scored, but only one home league win from four 
The attacking numbers are healthy. Ajax have scored 21 league goals in seven games, including a 4-0 win at Telstar, a 5-1 win at Fortuna Sittard and a 5-1 thrashing of Willem II. When they get going, they can bury teams.
The home record is a different story. A 2-2 draw with Heerenveen, a 1-3 defeat to PSV, that 5-1 over Willem II, then 2-2 against Excelsior. One win from four league games at the Johan Cruijff ArenA. That takes some explaining for a club of this size.
The common factor is the defence. Ajax have conceded in every one of those home league games, nine goals in total across the season. Michel’s side are creating plenty. They’re just giving plenty back.
The big blow came during the international break. Kasper Dolberg suffered a serious knee injury in Denmark training, which is expected to rule him out for most of the season. He’d scored two and set up three in his previous three Eredivisie appearances. Tolu Arokodare now gets a clear run as the number nine.
Daley Blind, Aaron Bouwman and Caio Henrique are all doubts, and Simon Adingra is only just back in training. Without Dolberg, Ajax lose their sharpest finisher. Can Arokodare carry that load straight away? That’s the question. At least there’s plenty of craft behind him, with Davy Klaassen, Julian Brandt and Oscar Gloukh all expected to start, and nobody suspended.
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NEC Nijmegen: a thin squad, quiet forwards and a defence that keeps leaking 
Dick Schreuder’s side have had a rough few weeks. A 3-0 defeat at promoted Cambuur, then a 5-0 hammering by Juventus on their Europa League debut. The 1-1 draw with Go Ahead Eagles stopped the rot, but only just.
Even that game summed them up. Perr Schuurs put NEC in front early, and the lead lasted almost no time at all.
The attack hasn’t fired. Tjaronn Chery has three league goals but has blanked in his last three, Bryan Linssen has scored once, and Dusan Tadic has just one assist in six appearances. For a side built to play on the front foot, that’s a real problem.
That recent record against Ajax is the oddest part of NEC’s profile. Before this three-game run, Ajax had lost to them just once in 32 meetings, and the biggest scoreline in the fixture’s history is still Ajax’s 9-1 win in November 1967. Nobody’s expecting anything like that on Saturday. It does show how unusual NEC’s recent success against this opponent really is.
The injury list doesn’t help. Bram Nuytinck and Emre Mor are out, while Ahmetcan Kaplan, Deveron Fonville and Clement Bischoff have returned to parts of training but aren’t fully match fit. Schreuder’s options at the back are stretched.
NEC have taken five points from their last five league games, and across the season they’ve conceded more than they’ve scored, 13 against and 12 for. They’ll create something in Amsterdam. Keeping Ajax out for 90 minutes is another matter entirely.
Probable lineup Ajax: Ter Stegen; Gaaei, Kehrer, Baas, Wijndal; Klaassen, Mokio, Brandt; Berghuis, Arokodare, Gloukh
Probable lineup NEC Nijmegen: Polster; Bras, Schuurs, Storm; Tahaui, Nejasmic, Lebreton, Thomas; Chery, Tadic; Linssen
Free Football Prediction: Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen
Our prediction: Ajax to win and both teams to score
The straight home win is priced at 1.30, which is too short to back on its own. Ajax should win this, but the way they’re defending at home makes a clean sheet unlikely.
They’ve conceded in every home league game so far, and NEC have scored in the last two meetings between these sides. With Chery, Tadic and Linssen all capable of producing something from very little, one goal for the visitors is realistic.
At the other end, Ajax’s chance creation, 33 shots against Excelsior, tells you goals will come, even without Dolberg. NEC’s patched-up back line won’t hold for long. We’re expecting something like 3-1 or 2-1 to the hosts.
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