- 1 Sassuolo vs AC Milan: the side that beat Juventus hosts the league’s last unbeaten chaser
- 2 Sassuolo: a home side that scores late and doesn’t fear big names
- 3 AC Milan: unbeaten in the league, eight scored in five, and a record signing up front
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Sassuolo vs AC Milan
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Sassuolo vs AC Milan: the side that beat Juventus hosts the league’s last unbeaten chaser 
Sassuolo beat Milan 2-0 at the Mapei last May. Then, five weeks into this season, they beat Juventus 3-2 with a goal in the 94th minute. This isn’t a ground where big clubs stroll in and collect three points.
AC Milan travel to Reggio Emilia on Sunday 11 October for Serie A Matchday 6, with kick-off at 18:00 Paris time. They arrive fifth on 11 points, still unbeaten in the league after three wins and two draws. Sassuolo sit tenth with seven points, two wins, a draw and two defeats.
On paper, the gap is four points and five places. In practice, it’s narrower than that. Across the last six meetings, it’s two wins each and two draws. Over 25 meetings in all, Sassuolo have won eight times. For a club of their size against the Rossoneri, that’s a record that takes some explaining.
Milan’s season has been a mix of the solid and the shaky. They went 2-0 down at Lazio before Diego Moreira came off the bench and dragged them back to 2-2 with a double. They beat Lecce 3-0. Then came a 2-0 defeat to Benfica, a reminder that this team can still go missing.
Sassuolo, meanwhile, swing between brilliance and frustration. The Juventus win was the high point. A 2-1 defeat at Monza a few days later, despite holding the ball for roughly two-thirds of the match, was the low one. Which version turns up on Sunday?
The market makes Milan clear favourites at 1.80. We think that’s fair. Not generous, not stingy: fair.
Sassuolo: a home side that scores late and doesn’t fear big names 
The Mapei has been good to Sassuolo this season. Their recent home record across all competitions reads three wins, a draw and a defeat from five, worth two points per game. That’s top-half form on their own patch.
The Juventus game sums them up. Four goals in a frantic 12-minute spell, and then Vasilije Adzic, on loan from Juve of all clubs, settled it in the 94th minute. This side doesn’t stop playing until the whistle. Four of their league goals have arrived after the 75th minute. Late goals are a habit here.
The problem is the other end. Across their last five matches they’ve scored nine but conceded eight. Both teams have found the net in each of those games. A side that leaks like that can’t count on keeping a disciplined Milan attack quiet for 90 minutes.
And the Monza defeat still doesn’t bear close inspection. Sassuolo had the ball for around 65 minutes out of every 90 at the U-Power Stadium. They lost 2-1, with Gustavo Varela scoring twice. Possession without punch. That’s the risk with this team.
There’s talent in midfield, though. Darryl Bakola, still only 18, has seen his value climb to a reported 30 million euros, with Juventus watching closely. Kristian Thorstvedt has started all four recent meetings with Milan that we’ve tracked. He’ll be central to whatever Sassuolo try to build.
Can they do it again? They’ve done it before. The 2-0 win here in May wasn’t a fluke, and neither was the 2-2 at San Siro in December 2025. But beating Milan twice in a row at home is a different ask.
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AC Milan: unbeaten in the league, eight scored in five, and a record signing up front 
Seventy-four million euros. That’s what Milan paid Paris Saint-Germain for Goncalo Ramos in the summer, making the Portuguese striker the most expensive signing in the club’s history. The price tag comes with a simple demand: goals in games exactly like this one.
The underlying picture is decent. Across their last five games, Milan have scored eight and conceded five. Their defence rates as one of the more reliable in the league, and five league games without defeat tells you they know how to avoid losing even on bad days.
Lazio was one of those bad days. Two goals down at the break in Rome, with Cancellieri and Noslin both on target, they looked beaten. Moreira’s second-half double rescued a point. Credit where it’s due: that’s a side with resilience.
The 3-0 win over Lecce showed the other side of them. Three goals, no reply, no drama. When Milan get in front, they tend to stay there.
The 2-0 loss to Benfica is the one blot. It came away from Serie A, and it was a sharp reminder that this squad still has gaps when the pace rises. Sassuolo will press and run, and Milan’s midfield has to be ready for it.
Away from home, Milan have picked up 1.6 points per game across their last five on the road: two wins, two draws and a defeat. Not spectacular. But steady. And steady usually beats inconsistent over 90 minutes.
Probable lineup Sassuolo: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup AC Milan: Not announced at time of publication
Free Football Prediction: Sassuolo vs AC Milan
Our prediction: AC Milan to win at 1.80
Milan are unbeaten in five league games, with a sturdier defence and a better balance between scoring and conceding. Sassuolo have shipped eight goals in their last five games, and both teams have scored in every one of them. Against a forward line led by a 74 million euro striker, that’s a weakness Milan will target.
Sassuolo’s home form and last May’s 2-0 win make this a game to respect. But their defeat at Monza showed what happens when they dominate the ball without cutting through. Milan don’t need the ball to hurt you. They need two or three clean chances.
The double chance at 1.22 is too short to bother with. The straight Milan win at 1.80 is the value. They’re the better side, they’re unbeaten, and they’ve got the extra quality in the final third. Milan to win.
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