- 1 Monaco vs Toulouse: the unbeaten leaders host a side that can’t keep a clean sheet
- 2 Monaco: control first, goals second, and it’s working
- 3 Toulouse: five games, zero clean sheets, and a new coach still searching
- 4 Free Ligue 1 Prediction: Monaco vs Toulouse
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Monaco vs Toulouse: the unbeaten leaders host a side that can’t keep a clean sheet 
Thirteen points from fifteen. Monaco are top of Ligue 1, unbeaten, and the only side in France that’s already won at the Parc des Princes this season.
Filipe Luis took over this summer, and the former Flamengo coach hasn’t needed long. Four wins and a draw in the league, eight goals scored and only three conceded. Add the European qualifiers and it’s six wins from seven competitive matches. That’s a side that knows what it’s about.
Toulouse arrive at the Stade Louis II on Saturday 10 October, kick-off 20:45 Paris time, sitting 13th with five points. They’ve got a new coach too. Jens Berthel Askou came in from Motherwell after Carles Martinez Novell left for Bayer Leverkusen, and the start was rough: two points from the first four games.
Then came a 3-2 win over Le Havre just before the break. A pulse, at least. But does one win against the bottom side change the picture? Not really.
Here’s the number that matters. Toulouse haven’t kept a single clean sheet in five league games. Monaco have kept two in five and have won both of their home matches. The gap is real.
Monaco are priced at around 1.69 to win. For the league leaders at home against a team that’s leaked in every game, that’s a fair number.
Monaco: control first, goals second, and it’s working 
This Monaco side doesn’t blow teams away. It squeezes them.
The results tell the story. A 1-0 win at Le Havre on the opening weekend, then 2-0 at home to Marseille. A 2-1 win at PSG on 4 September, the biggest result of the French season so far. A 1-1 draw at Strasbourg, then 2-1 against Lens at the Louis II on 18 September. Eight goals in five games isn’t a huge return, but three conceded is the kind of defensive record that wins leagues.
At home it’s been tighter still. Two games, two wins, one goal against. Opponents haven’t found the Louis II a comfortable place to visit, and there’s no reason to think Toulouse will be any different.
There are absences to manage, though. Paris Brunner, the young German forward who’s been the standout name of the early season, is suspended. Aleksandr Golovin picked up an injury over the international break and is a doubt. Coulibaly and Stanis Idumbo are both fitness questions too. Losing Brunner hurts. No sugarcoating that.
But Filipe Luis has options. Folarin Balogun is expected to lead the line, with Ansu Fati and Abline behind him, and Denis Zakaria sitting in a back three alongside Sane and Eric Dier. Hradecky behind them. It’s a solid spine.
And look at the form line across all competitions. Monaco beat Gornik Zabrze 3-2 away and 4-1 at home in the Conference League qualifiers in August, so this group has already handled a schedule with midweek football. Toulouse haven’t had that. Freshness isn’t the concern for the hosts. Rhythm, if anything, favours them.
The friendly win over Pisa, 2-0 on 3 October, kept the rhythm going during the break. Small detail. It still counts.
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Free for 2 weeks.
Toulouse: five games, zero clean sheets, and a new coach still searching 
Nine goals conceded in five league games. That’s Toulouse’s season in one number.
They opened with a 2-0 home defeat to Lyon, drew 2-2 at Brest, lost 1-0 at home to Lille and then drew 2-2 at Lorient. Four games, two points. Askou’s first month in French football didn’t bear close inspection.
The Le Havre game finally brought a win, 3-2 at the Stadium on 19 September. Fair enough. But conceding twice at home to a side that’s bottom of the table and still hasn’t won a match tells you everything you need to know about where this defence is. Toulouse have shipped at least one goal in every league outing this season.
The away form is a mixed bag. Two trips, two draws, four goals scored, four conceded. They’ll score, that’s not the issue. Seven goals in five games is a respectable return for a side in 13th. The attack runs through Tengstedt, Jorgensen and Azizi behind Russell-Rowe, with Sigur and Cristian Casseres covering the ground in front of the defence. There’s energy there. Protection is another matter.
Team news is close to clean. Rasmus Nicolaisen is working back from a calf injury and remains a doubt. Mark McKenzie is available after his ban. Guillaume Restes stays in goal.
History won’t lift them either. Toulouse’s last win against Monaco came at the Louis II in February 2024. Since then, four meetings: two Monaco wins, two draws. Can Askou’s side stop the leaders? On this evidence, it’s a big ask.
Probable lineup Monaco: Hradecky; Sane, Zakaria, Dier; Vanderson, Camara, Diop, Nazinho; Abline, Ansu Fati; Balogun
Probable lineup Toulouse: Restes; Messali, Koumbassa, McKenzie, Tape; Sigur, Casseres; Tengstedt, Jorgensen, Azizi; Russell-Rowe
Free Ligue 1 Prediction: Monaco vs Toulouse
Our prediction: Monaco to win @ 1.69
Monaco have won both home games, conceded once at the Louis II and beaten PSG away. Toulouse have no clean sheets in five and only one win, against the team propping up the table. The numbers point one way.
Brunner’s suspension takes something away from the hosts’ attack, and that’s the only real reason this price isn’t shorter. It doesn’t change the structure. Monaco control games, Toulouse leak goals, and the leaders have the depth to cover one absence.
Monaco to win at 1.69. The league leaders take care of business at home.
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