- 1 Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen: level on points, miles apart on consistency
- 2 Mainz 05: plenty of goals, a reserve keeper and a home record that won’t go away
- 3 Bayer Leverkusen: Schick scoring every week and a defence that’s tightened up
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen: level on points, miles apart on consistency 
Seven points each after four games. That’s where the similarity between Mainz 05 and Bayer Leverkusen ends.
Leverkusen lost their opener 3-2 at promoted Elversberg and haven’t lost since. A 4-0 win over Union Berlin, a 2-2 draw at Augsburg, a 2-0 Europa League win over NK Celje and a 2-0 win over RB Leipzig before the break. Three clean sheets in their last four competitive matches. Patrik Schick has scored in all four league games.
Mainz have had a wilder ride. A 5-0 win at Hamburg, then a 3-1 home defeat in the derby against Eintracht Frankfurt, then a 4-3 win at Borussia Moenchengladbach decided by substitutes Eric Martel and Danny da Costa. Goals at both ends. Not a lot of control.
Break down the numbers and a clear edge emerges for the visitors. Mainz have failed to win five of their last six home matches across all competitions. Against this opponent at the Mewa Arena, they’ve won one of the last five meetings, with three defeats, and they’ve lost four of their last six home league games against Leverkusen.
The bookmakers agree, if not emphatically. Leverkusen are around 2.15, Mainz around 2.87, the draw at 3.80. Kick-off is at 15:30 Paris time on Saturday 10 October.
Mainz’s problem isn’t scoring. It’s what happens at the other end when games stretch, and Leverkusen are built to stretch them.
Mainz 05: plenty of goals, a reserve keeper and a home record that won’t go away 
Robin Zentner returned to team training on Tuesday after his hand injury, but he couldn’t take part in any goalkeeper-specific drills. That almost certainly means Alexander Schwolow starts again, as he did in the 4-3 at Gladbach. Seven goals in that game, three of them conceded.
Urs Fischer’s 3-5-2 is set up to attack. Phillip Tietz has been the main threat up front, Sheraldo Becker’s pace gives Mainz a direct route in behind, and Nadiem Amiri and Jae-sung Lee link the midfield to the strikers. When it clicks, as it did in the 5-0 at Hamburg, it’s a side that knows what it’s about.
When it doesn’t, it leaks. Frankfurt scored three at the Mewa Arena. Gladbach scored three more, and they’d taken nothing from their first three games and had just parted with their coach.
There is some good news. Paul Nebel, captain Silvan Widmer and Fabio Gruber all returned to team training this week, which gives Fischer options he hasn’t had for most of the season. Nebel hasn’t played a minute yet after a pre-season injury. Dominik Kohr, though, remains out with an ankle syndesmosis problem until early next year, and Silas is also unavailable.
Home form is the sticking point. One win from six at the Mewa Arena across all competitions. That’s a run that takes some explaining for a side with seven points on the board.
Will that change against Leverkusen? History says it won’t.
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Bayer Leverkusen: Schick scoring every week and a defence that’s tightened up 
Schick’s acrobatic finish against Leipzig was his fourth league goal in four games. Nobody in the Leverkusen squad is in better form, and he arrives at a ground where the hosts haven’t kept a clean sheet in their last two league outings.
Carles Martinez has found a balance quickly. Mark Flekken in goal, a back four of Jarell Quansah, Edmond Tapsoba, Facundo Medina and Miguel Gutierrez, with Exequiel Fernandez and Aleix Garcia controlling midfield. Moussa Diaby, back at the club this season, started against Leipzig and looks set to keep his place alongside Ibrahim Maza and Afonso Moreira behind Schick.
The defensive turnaround is the real story. Leverkusen conceded three in the opener at Elversberg. Since then, they’ve let in two goals in four games, and both came in the draw at Augsburg against one of the most prolific attacks in the division.
Away from home, they’ve been reliable for a while. Leverkusen have avoided defeat in 12 of their last 15 Bundesliga away matches. That’s not a side that panics on the road.
Depth helps too. Nathan Tella and Martin Terrier are back from injury, joining Malik Tillman, Robert Andrich, Loic Bade and Lucas Vazquez as rotation options with the Europa League running alongside. Guela Doue, Kennet Eichhorn and Montrell Culbreath are the absentees. Martinez can rotate without weakening the core.
Real Madrid’s reported interest in Quansah is noise for now. On the pitch, he’s been part of a back line that’s done the hard yards.
Probable lineup Mainz 05: Schwolow; Posch, Gruber, Potulski; Mwene, Sano, Lee, Amiri, Caci; Tietz, Becker
Probable lineup Bayer Leverkusen: Flekken; Quansah, Tapsoba, Medina, Gutierrez; Fernandez, Garcia; Diaby, Maza, Moreira; Schick
Free Football Prediction: Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen
Our prediction: Bayer Leverkusen to win (2.15)
Leverkusen have the striker in form, the tighter defence and the better record in this fixture. Mainz have failed to win five of their last six home matches, they’re likely to start their second-choice goalkeeper, and Kohr’s absence leaves the midfield without its most aggressive ball-winner.
Mainz will create chances. Tietz and Becker are dangerous, and this home side won’t sit back. But that openness is exactly what Leverkusen’s counter-attack feeds on, with Diaby and Moreira running into space and Schick finishing whatever arrives.
Leverkusen have also been here before. Four defeats for Mainz in their last six home league games against this opponent doesn’t happen by accident; it reflects a matchup where the visitors’ speed in transition keeps exposing the gaps behind Fischer’s wing-backs. At 2.15, the away win is the pick.
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