A shock jump that changes everything
It was the kind of night that can alter a franchise’s future. The Toronto Maple Leafs won the NHL Draft 2026 lottery to grab the first overall pick, despite having just an 8.5% chance of pulling it off. Entering with the fifth-best odds, Toronto somehow beat the field and landed a golden ticket.
Behind them, the San Jose Sharks will pick second, while the Vancouver Canucks round out the top three. It is a reminder that this lottery can still spit out chaos, with teams blowing up the expected order in one night.
With just an 8.5% chance of winning the lottery coming in, the Toronto Maple Leafs will be selecting first in the 2026 NHL Draft 🤯 pic.twitter.com/Cs22fADYCB
— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) May 5, 2026
A landmark moment for Toronto
This is no small win for the Canadian franchise. It is only the third time in club history that Toronto will pick first overall. The last time came in 2016, when they took Auston Matthews, who has since become the face of the team. Before that, you have to go back to 1985 and Wendel Clark.
The result also fits a recent trend. The Maple Leafs are the third team in six years to win the lottery without the best odds, following the Islanders in 2025 and the Blackhawks in 2023. Proof, if any were needed, that luck matters just as much as planning in this thing.
A loaded class now in sight
With the No. 1 pick secured, Toronto now enters the crucial part: making the call. And all signs point to Gavin McKenna. The Penn State left winger is widely viewed as the top North American prospect in this class.
The numbers back it up. He produced 51 points in 35 NCAA games and only added to the hype after an already standout WHL season. Creative, explosive and capable of taking over shifts on his own or in a team structure, McKenna has the look of a player who can change a franchise.
General manager John Chayka is not hiding it. He has tracked the player for years and sees a complete prospect with the kind of upside that could make an immediate impact. Nothing is done yet, but the momentum is obvious.
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Other serious options at the top
If McKenna is the clear favourite, he is not the only name in the frame. Swede Ivar Stenberg is another leading option. Already making an impact in the SHL at just 18, he stands out for his maturity and his vision.
Behind those two attacking talents, a number of defencemen are also catching scouts’ eyes. Players such as Chase Reid, Carson Carels and Daxon Rudolph have the potential to grow into blue-line anchors at the highest level. In a league that still pays a premium for top-end defenders, that sort of profile could tempt more than a few teams.
Strategy still wide open
As for the San Jose Sharks, who will pick second, the message remains deliberately vague. General manager Mike Grier has said he is open to every option, including trading down.
San Jose, used to picking near the top in recent years, continues to build a young, talented core. Adding another elite player could speed up the rebuild, but a trade could also bring in more assets.
A date already circled in red
The NHL Draft 2026 will be held at the KeyBank Center in Buffalo, with the first round set for 26 June. As always, all eyes will be on the first pick, the symbol of hope for a franchise looking for a reset.
For Toronto, the equation is simple but huge. Get this right and the team can be lifted for years. Get it wrong and the pressure only gets heavier on a project already under the microscope.
One thing is certain: this lottery has shaken up the board. And now all roads lead to the Maple Leafs, who hold one of the most important picks in their recent history in the palm of their hand.
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