Five games, two teams left standing
Manchester City have won all five. Arsenal have lost one. That is the whole story of the Premier League so far, and Opta’s supercomputer has read it the same way.
The model still makes Arsenal favourites at 43.7%, up three points on their pre-season number of 40.6%. City sit at 39.8%. Between them they hold 83.4% of the title equity in the projection, which turns a race many expected Arsenal to win at a canter into a straight fight.
City’s rise is the sharpest movement in the model. They began the campaign second favourites on 19.6% and have added 20.2 percentage points, more than any other club. Enzo Maresca has won his first five league games in charge, joining Carlo Ancelotti, Pep Guardiola, Craig Shakespeare, Maurizio Sarri and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer as the only managers to do that at a Premier League club.
Try it for $0.99.
Brighton crash the party
Brighton are fourth in the projection on 4.2%, double their pre-season figure of 2.0%. The numbers behind it are not a fluke. They are the division’s top scorers with 16 goals and hold the best goal difference at plus 11. They also ended Arsenal’s unbeaten run, which had stretched 155 days back to 19 April, with a 3-0 win at the weekend.
Liverpool are third favourites but moving the wrong way. Andoni Iraola’s side remain unbeaten, yet three draws in five games have pulled their title chance from 9.2% down to 5.7%. Behind them the field thins out fast: Brentford on 1.2%, Everton on 1.1%, Chelsea on 1.0%.
Small sample, real shift
Arsenal’s number went up despite losing at the Amex, which sounds odd until you look at who has stumbled around them. Chelsea have gone three games without a win after scoring eight in their opening two. Manchester United, fourth favourites in pre-season on 6.6%, have fallen to 0.9%, the biggest drop of any club. Tottenham are bottom after five matches for the first time since 2008-09.
Five rounds is not a season. The supercomputer rewrites itself every weekend, and a September projection has never lifted a trophy. What has changed is the shape of the thing. Arsenal are no longer running alone.
Discover the rest of our football news on MathODDS!
in your pocket.
Real-time notifications & alerts
Leave a Reply