407 minutes and counting
Tottenham have played four Premier League matches this season and scored in none of them. The clock since their last league goal reads 407 minutes. The last time they went four top-flight games in a row without finding the net was September 2006.
Two of those four ended 0-0, against Nottingham Forest and Everton. The Everton match produced something the club had never seen before, the first goalless draw at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in 140 Premier League fixtures. Their previous home 0-0 in the competition came in September 2017 against Swansea City, back when Wembley was home.
A third in a row on Saturday would put Spurs in company they will not enjoy. No side has managed three consecutive goalless Premier League draws since West Ham in December 2015. Tottenham last did it in January and February 2001 under George Graham, and that run stretched to four.
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The numbers behind the drought
This is not a finishing problem waiting to correct itself. Spurs rank 19th for expected goals across the opening four rounds, 3.45, and they sit bottom of the division for xG per shot at 0.07. They have out-created an opponent on xG only once, 1.12 against Newcastle’s 0.69 on August 29.
Roberto De Zerbi was handed a heavily rebuilt squad and a large budget. Four games in, neither the signings nor the system have produced a league goal, and Tuesday’s 3-1 defeat to a much-changed Liverpool side in the EFL Cup did nothing for the mood around the place.
Villa are no healthier
Aston Villa sit 19th with one point and one goal. Only three times in their history have they failed to win any of their first five top-flight matches: 1919-20, when the winless run reached seven, 1964-65, seven again, and last season, five. That last example ended with a fourth-place finish and a Europa League title, which is roughly Unai Emery’s argument.
The head-to-head favours the visitors more than the table does. Villa have won four of their last six league trips to Spurs, having managed three wins in the previous 21. None of the last 22 Premier League meetings between the clubs has been drawn, Tottenham taking 15 of them and Villa seven. Emiliano Buendia has been involved in four goals against Tottenham, more than against any other opponent in the competition.
The Opta supercomputer still leans towards the hosts, giving them a 49.5% win probability against Villa’s 25.8%. A draw comes up in 24.7% of the simulations, an outcome none of the last 22 league meetings between these two has produced.
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