Barcelona way out in front in the simulations
41.2%. That is how often Barcelona lift the trophy when Opta’s supercomputer runs the Women’s Champions League to its conclusion. Nobody else gets close.
The competition returns on Tuesday with its 18-team league phase. Six matches apiece. The top four go straight into the quarter-finals, while the teams finishing fifth to 12th have to navigate a play-off.
The Catalan club lifted the trophy in June, their fourth, after a 4-0 rout of OL Lyonnes in the final. Ewa Pajor and Salma Paralluelo each scored twice after the break.
That number looks stranger still given the squad churn. Alexia Putellas, the two-time Ballon d’Or winner, has moved to the WSL. Paralluelo has joined Lyon.
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Bayern Munich the only genuine threat
Behind them, Jose Barcala’s Bayern Munich take 17.3% of the simulations and reach the final in 34.8% of them. The Bavarians are still smarting from a semi-final defeat to Barcelona last season.
The problem for Bayern has a name. Their only two defeats in all competitions last season both came against Barcelona: 7-1 in October, 4-2 in May. The two sides will meet again on the final matchday of the league phase.
Chelsea complete the favourites list in third at 13.7%, ahead of Manchester City on 9.1%. Sonia Bompastor’s London side have the kindest draw in the league phase and a 94.0% chance of reaching the quarter-finals, second only to Barcelona.
Lyon and Arsenal look underpriced
Opta is less generous to the last two teams to lift the trophy. OL Lyonnes, eight-time winners, sit fifth in the favourites ranking and make the final in just 20.6% of simulations. The departure of Lindsey Heaps to Denver leaves a hole in midfield that the arrivals of Caroline Weir and Paralluelo do not fully plug.
Arsenal, champions in 2024-25, are down at 7.0% for the title. Renee Slegers’s Gunners are paying for their blunt attack, underlined by that recent 0-0 home draw with Crystal Palace.
Barcelona have lost only three of their 38 European matches since the start of 2023. All three defeats came against English opposition: Arsenal, Manchester City, Chelsea. The model knows it.
Outside the top six, Real Madrid have the best chance of reaching the quarter-finals at 49.6%, just ahead of Swedish surprise package Hacken on 47.2%.
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