Eight goals in seven meetings
That is Erling Haaland’s return against Manchester United, and only two of those came on the road. He arrives at Old Trafford on Sunday off a brace in Porto. Opta’s supercomputer has run round four of the Premier League match by match, and the derby is the weekend’s centrepiece.
Manchester City, level with Arsenal on nine points from nine, come out ahead in 44.2% of simulations against 31.6% for United. The model is not exactly committing itself.
United have a case of their own. Michael Carrick has won nine of his 10 league games at Old Trafford since taking over in January. Beat City here and he becomes only the third manager in club history to win his first two league meetings with them.
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Chelsea, and a collision of two streaks
Chelsea carry the round’s highest probability, 76.1% against Hull City. The Tigers have lost all 18 of their league visits to Stamford Bridge.
Something has to give. Xabi Alonso’s side have scored inside the opening five minutes of all three of their league matches. Hull have not conceded at all this season.
Arsenal are the strongest travelling pick at 65.1% at Sunderland. Liverpool sit just above them, 65.5% against a Fulham side still without a point.
Where the draws live
Aston Villa against Nottingham Forest is the weekend’s likeliest stalemate at 26%. Villa remain favourites at 44.8%, though Unai Emery’s team have yet to score a league goal and rank 19th for expected goals with 2.6.
Bournemouth against Brentford is barely looser: 39.4% to 35.7%, draw at 25%. Bournemouth have managed something no Premier League club had managed before, leading in each of their first three games of a season and winning none of them.
Monday brings Leeds and Newcastle, with the hosts nudged ahead 41.3% to 33.3%. The Newcastle numbers are strange. Nobody has faced more shots this season, 61 in all, 20.3 a game, a rate no side has sustained across a full campaign since records began in 2003-04. And yet the Magpies have six goals from 3 expected, the league’s biggest overperformance.
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