Two changes, and a message
Rassie Erasmus barely touched his team. Two changes for Baltimore, one of them forced by injury, and that is the whole story of South Africa’s week.
Justin Marshall read it the way most people in New Zealand did. Asked earlier on Sport Nation how much Dave Rennie would be shaped by what Erasmus put on paper, the former All Blacks scrum-half did not hesitate. “Quite a lot.”
Then he explained why he would have done the same. “If I’m Rassie Erasmus, why would I give Dave Rennie and the All Blacks a bone? At the moment, they are leading this series and why would they give them any sniff of an opportunity by making dramatic changes and changing combinations that are working really well for them?”
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South Africa lead 2-1 with one to play
The numbers back the caution. New Zealand took the opener 33-16 at Ellis Park. South Africa answered in Cape Town, then closed out Soweto 29-24 to move 2-1 up. Baltimore is the only fixture in the series played on neutral ground, and the only one left.
Erasmus has rotated in bigger Tests than this one. He has not done it here, and Marshall reads that as intent rather than caution. “He’s got his foot on the throat at the moment; he will want to keep it there. That’s their DNA, that’s the way they operate, so no let-off for the All Blacks.”
Marshall also pushed back on the idea that the series has turned sour. The scrum has been the one running argument between the camps for three weeks. Everything else, he said, has stayed where it should be. “The whole chat throughout this Test series has been about the fact that this is the greatest rivalry; this is the best two teams in the world going at each other with everything they’ve got.”
Rennie without three of his best
Rennie lands in the United States without captain Ardie Savea, Luke Jacobson and Quinn Tupaea. Jacobson and Tupaea have been among New Zealand’s most consistent performers across 2026, and losing all three at once leaves Rennie picking a side for the biggest game of his tenure from a thinned list.
A squared series is still there. Win in Baltimore and New Zealand walk away 2-2, which is the outcome Marshall wants his old team chasing rather than damage limitation.
“We can actually come out of this series with a draw and you’re no better than us. I go, righto, that’s the challenge I want as a player and an All Black and an All Black coach.”
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