52.0%, which is another way of saying nobody knows
Opta ran the opening week of the 2026 season through its supercomputer and published the output on Tuesday. Buffalo come out at 52.0%. Two full percentage points of edge after however many thousand simulations. You could flip a coin and get roughly the same answer.
The Los Angeles Chargers sit at the opposite pole, 80.7%, the widest margin anywhere on the Week 1 board.
Between those two extremes: Jacksonville at 75.7%, Detroit at 74.2%, Philadelphia at 67.5%. Favourites, yes. Locks, no.
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Seattle win the opener, New England win the argument
The season kicks off with the Seahawks hosting New England, and the model has the reigning champions through in 61.0% of runs. Home field for a title holder. Not much of a story there.
The season-long numbers are stranger. Opta gives the Patriots a 77.8% shot at the playoffs against 52.9% for Seattle, and both clubs went 14-3 last year. Same record, a 25-point gap in postseason probability.
Look at the power rankings and it gets odder still: Seattle second, New England third. The model then hands the Patriots the AFC East at 60.0%, which says more about the two divisions than about the two rosters.
An NFL game in Melbourne, and the Rams are favoured
The Rams get 61.6% against San Francisco for the league’s first regular-season fixture in Australia.
After that the slate turns into a fog. Cincinnati 65.5%. Las Vegas 60.9%. Pittsburgh 60.8%, Baltimore 57.4%, Dallas 57.3%. Chicago and Minnesota both land on 54.6%, Tennessee on 54.3%, which puts three games barely off dead even.
None of it is a result. It is a starting point, and Sunday will do what it wants with it.
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