Three divisions, twelve teams, one season
The 2026 NFL season kicks off on Wednesday night with a Super Bowl rematch between Seattle and New England. Opta’s projection model has already picked out where the real battle will be fought: the NFC West, the AFC West and the NFC North.
The model runs thousands of seasons to estimate each team’s record, playoff chances, division title odds and Super Bowl hopes. The verdict? The NFC West is projected for 38 combined wins, the highest total of any division. Three of its four teams won at least 12 games last year.
Try it for $0.99.
The Rams blow the argument wide open
Los Angeles has come out of the loudest offseason in the league. The arrival of Myles Garrett, a two-time Defensive Player of the Year, has shifted the balance of power. His 23 sacks last season speak for themselves, but the number that matters is elsewhere: 97 pressures on 315 pass-rush snaps. One in four of his rushes ends with the quarterback under real heat.
Add in the return of Aaron Donald, a 10-time Pro Bowler, after two seasons in retirement. Nobody knows what he has left. If he finds even a flash of his old form, the Rams defense becomes the best in the NFL, according to the TRACR rankings.
On offense, Matthew Stafford is the reigning MVP, with Puka Nacua and Davante Adams as targets, all behind a line that lifted Los Angeles to No 1 in the league in success rate (49.7%). The model gives them 11.7 wins, the best total in football.
Seattle, the reigning champion, is only forecast for 9.5 wins. Losing Kenneth Walker III, the Super Bowl MVP, to Kansas City stings.
One win separates the top three in the AFC West
The top three in the AFC West are separated by a whisker: Chargers 8.6 wins, Broncos 8.4, Chiefs 8.0. Denver still comes off a 14-3 record and a conference title game run, but 11 of those 14 wins came by eight points or fewer, which goes a long way to explaining the model’s caution.
Kansas City remains the mystery team. A run of seven straight conference title games ended with a 6-11 finish and Patrick Mahomes tearing his ACL in December. The Chiefs offense is projected to rank 28th.
Chicago faces a rude awakening
In the NFC North, Detroit is expected to finish top with 10.0 wins, ahead of Green Bay (9.4), Minnesota (8.3) and Chicago (7.6). That would leave the Bears, division champions last year at 11-6, bringing up the rear.
It comes down to one stat: 33 turnovers forced, the best in the league, and the kind of number that rarely repeats itself. Green Bay were top five in 2024 with 31 takeaways, then bottom five the following season with 14. Chicago also won seven one-score games. That sort of luck tends not to last.
Find the latest NFL news on our mathodds website and app!
in your pocket.
Real-time notifications & alerts
Leave a Reply