Nobody had this on their card
Hull City were supposed to be the punchline of this Premier League season. Before a ball was kicked, the argument was not whether they would go down but how badly. Plenty of people had them lined up to threaten Derby County’s record for the lowest points total the competition has ever seen.
Two matchdays in, they have six points from six and have not conceded a goal.
Only four clubs in the division still hold a 100% record, and the other three were all built to fight near the top of the table. Hull and Arsenal are the only two sides yet to be breached at all.
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What the history books say about a start like this
Opening a Premier League campaign with two wins and two clean sheets is rarer than it sounds. It has happened 39 times in the competition’s history. Of those 39 sides, exactly one went on to be relegated.
That was West Brom in 2017-18, and what followed reads like a statistical accident: one win in their next 31 league games, then bottom place. Hanging Hull’s season on that single data point would be stretching it a very long way.
The simpler number is more useful. Six points puts Hull 15% of the way to the traditional 40-point safety mark, with 5.3% of the season played. Survival maths rarely looks this relaxed in early September.
Winning without the ball
How Hull are doing it fits a wider pattern. They won at Coventry with 31.5% possession and never looked uncomfortable doing it.
Across the division so far, teams finishing a match with less than half the ball have won 50% of the time. Teams with the majority of possession have won 30%. Chelsea beat Brighton with 25.9% of the ball. Newcastle won at Spurs with 42.5%. Sunderland beat Fulham with 41.4%.
Two rounds is not a trend, and the two strongest sides in the league, Arsenal and Manchester City, have won both their games with more than 60% possession. Control still works when you are good enough to control. For a squad like Hull’s, defensive shape and speed in transition are the cheaper route, and it is paying so far.
September will start to answer the real question. For now, Hull sit above several clubs who spent nine figures this summer.
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