Opta puts a number on the draw
Thirty-six clubs, 144 fixtures, eight matchdays, and no two teams facing the same set of opponents. The Champions League league phase was never built as a level playing field, and Opta has now measured how uneven it actually is.
The method is the Opta Power Rankings, which rate 16,000 clubs worldwide on a single scale. Average the rating of a team’s eight opponents and a difficulty score falls out. Manchester City came out at 91.7, the hardest schedule handed to any English club and the sixth hardest across the 36.
Enzo Maresca inherits that in his first European campaign in charge, City’s first Champions League without Pep Guardiola in 11 years. Barcelona and Paris Saint-Germain both landed in their fixture list from Pot 1. Napoli, 34th in the world, arrived from Pot 3.
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Liverpool and Arsenal come out ahead
Liverpool sit at the other end of the table. Their opponents average 90.0, the ninth-kindest schedule overall, and they drew Atlético Madrid and Inter, the two most forgiving Pot 1 sides available to English clubs.
Arsenal’s draw reads stranger. Bayern Munich away and Real Madrid at home is about as brutal as Pot 1 gets, and Borussia Dortmund was the strongest team in Pot 2. Then the bottom falls out of it. Sabah, 170th in the world, and Slovan Bratislava, 224th, are the two lowest-ranked qualifiers in the whole competition, and Arsenal drew both.
Recent history says the numbers only take you so far. Last season Arsenal finished top of the league phase with one of the easiest fixture lists, while Bayern finished second having been handed the hardest of all 36. Difficulty ratings bite hardest for the clubs outside that tier.
Villa and United face the grind
Aston Villa also drew Barcelona and PSG, then took the two toughest possible Pot 2 opponents in Club Brugge and Dortmund. Unai Emery has form against the French champions, who needed a 5-4 aggregate in the 2024-25 quarter-finals after losing 3-2 at Villa Park.
Manchester United are back for the first time since 2023-24, a campaign they ended fourth in their group. They host Bayern, drew Como as the hardest available Pot 4 side, and face Sporting CP and Roma, ranked 21st and 22nd. Outside England, Stuttgart walked off with the softest list of anyone at 88.9, while Lens landed the worst of the lot at 92.1.
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