Montana State stands alone in the FCS preseason model

A subdivision without its landlord

North Dakota State won ten FCS national titles between 2011 and 2024. The Bison have moved up to the FBS, and the subdivision they left behind now has to work out who actually runs it.

Opta’s TRACR model, which rates teams per 10 drives after adjusting for opponent strength and roster, gives an answer that leaves little room for argument. Montana State sits first among the 128 FCS programs at +26.44. South Dakota State is second at +18.95. The gap between them is 7.49 points, and the second-largest gap between any two teams in the whole ranking is 1.32.

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The Bobcats lead on both sides of the ball

Montana State also posts the best offensive rating in the subdivision at 16.0 and the best defensive rating at -10.4. No other program tops either column. The Bobcats are chasing back-to-back national championships, and the model treats that as their baseline rather than their ambition.

Their conference still ranks second overall. The Big Sky averages +5.72, held back because the teams behind the Bobcats have yet to sort out the playoff places among themselves. Montana is third overall and UC Davis eighth. Idaho, 18th after a 4-8 season, is the rebound the projection likes most.

Depth still belongs to the Missouri Valley

The MVFC tops the conference table at +7.17 even without the Bison. Sixteen FCS teams carry a TRACR of at least +10 and five of them play in the Valley: South Dakota State, Illinois State in ninth, North Dakota in 10th, South Dakota in 12th and Youngstown State in 16th. Southern Illinois sits 23rd.

History backs the depth argument. Since the two leagues launched their regular-season Challenge series in 2017, the Missouri Valley leads the head-to-head 34-19 in the regular season and 22-14 in the playoffs. Montana State may be the best team in the FCS by a distance the model has rarely produced. Getting past the Valley across a full postseason is a separate problem.

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