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MLB stadium at night during the NL MVP race between Ohtani and Crow-Armstrong

MLB: Ohtani and Crow-Armstrong split the NL MVP race

Two ways to be the best player in the National League

Nobody expected this argument to still be alive in late August. Shohei Ohtani has taken the National League MVP award in each of the last two seasons, and he sits second in the league in both OPS and OPS+. On most ballots that settles the question before anyone opens it.

Pete Crow-Armstrong refuses to let it settle. The Chicago Cubs center fielder has edged marginally ahead of Ohtani in OPS and OPS+, reached the 30-30 mark in mid-August, and leads all of Major League Baseball in WAR. A large slice of that lead comes from his glove. His work in center field has been the best in the sport this season, and WAR rewards it heavily.

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The answer only Ohtani can give

The Dodgers star has a reply nobody else on the ballot can match. He has made 14 starts on the mound this year and holds a 1.79 ERA across them. Voters face a choice between a hitter who pitches and a hitter who defends, and no precedent tells them which one should win.

Ohtani has not pitched in some time, though he is expected back on the mound during the Dodgers’ next homestand. Every start he adds between now and the end of September strengthens the half of his case that Crow-Armstrong cannot answer. Every extra run Crow-Armstrong saves in center chips away at it.

What September decides

The Cy Young race offers no such suspense. Jacob Misiorowski has allowed zero earned runs in half of his 18 starts since the beginning of May, leads the majors with a 1.68 ERA, 216 strikeouts, a 2.14 FIP and a 0.76 WHIP, and looks set for a unanimous vote. The MVP ballot is the one that keeps moving.

Los Angeles has its own reasons to want Ohtani back throwing. The two-time defending World Series champions need their rotation sorted before October. Blake Snell has worked six innings in each of his first two starts off the injured list and allowed a single earned run in that stretch. Fitting Ohtani back into that group without breaking him is the delicate part.

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Author

  • Photo Pierre Boulben - Editor in chief - Sports

    Former journalist for French newspaper L’équipe and ESPN, I have been the News Editor for MathOdds for the past two years. Mainly in charge of the news and previews coverage as well as our data powered sports trends and cheat-sheets.


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