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Premier League: Haaland has never needed August to warm up

Premier League: Haaland has never needed August to warm up

A record price and a huge pick rate

Erling Haaland costs £15.5m in Fantasy Premier League for the 2026-27 season. No player had ever hit that price before. The argument has rumbled on since the game opened. Do you tie up that much of your budget on one man, or spread it across the rest of the squad?

The numbers only make the call harder. Almost three quarters of managers have still picked him when locking in their team. Opta Analyst has dug into the Norwegian’s record to help make sense of it.

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22 goals in 14 August matches, and more hat-tricks than blanks

Haaland has scored 22 goals in 14 Premier League matches played in August. In that spell he has four hat-tricks and only three games without a goal.

His record across the first five league games of a season is still unmatched: 10 goals in 2024-25. He scored 9 in 2022-23, then 7 in 2023-24. Last season, his slowest start by that measure, he still managed 6.

The month-by-month breakdown backs up the trend. His top three scoring months in the league are August with 22 goals, September with 15 and October with 13.

A midwinter dip

Across the first three months of the season, Haaland scores every 68 minutes. From November to March, that drops to a goal every 144 minutes. He then picks back up to a goal every 87 minutes in April and May.

The rest of the numbers explain the price tag. The Norwegian is the fastest player to 100 Premier League goals, doing it in 111 matches, and to 50 Champions League goals, reaching that mark in 49 games. He holds the Premier League single-season scoring record with 36 in 2022-23. That same campaign he scored 52 in all competitions, a record for a player at an English top-flight club. His goals-per-minute rates are the best in the history of both competitions among players with at least 20 goals: one every 98.5 minutes in the Premier League, one every 80.9 in the Champions League.

A wildcard from Maresca

One unknown still sits outside the stats. Enzo Maresca could manage his striker’s minutes once the World Cup break is over, and that would change the picture in the early rounds.

For those thinking about going without Haaland, that may be the opening they need. The rest of the record points the other way: leaving the Norwegian out in August means betting against the most prolific August scorer in the modern history of the league.

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    The MathODDS editorial team brings together passionate experts in sports, statistics, and sports betting.

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