A division the data cannot quite pin down
Opta has run 10,000 simulations of the 2026-27 League Two season. Not one club reaches automatic promotion in more than 31% of them. Every one of the 24 teams goes up at least 68 times. Every one of them goes down at least 60 times.
Grimsby Town still come out on top. David Artell’s side finish in the top three in 30.5% of simulations. Last season, Grimsby made headlines by knocking Manchester United out of the League Cup, before losing to Salford City in the play-off semi-finals, 4-3 on aggregate. Jaze Kabia has gone to Leyton Orient, but veteran Andy Cook is back from Bradford City on a permanent deal.
Port Vale are close behind on 30.1%. The club have dropped from League One and want an instant return, just as they managed two years earlier. Jon Brady felt the 36 goals they scored last season were nowhere near enough. Max Watters has arrived from Barnsley, with Mo Faal joining on loan from Wrexham.
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Barnet are the most convincing dark horse
Barnet land a top-three finish in 27.7% of simulations and finish first in 10.2%. Dean Brennan’s side caught fire late on: seven wins from their final eight league games, including the last five in a row. Kabongo Tshimanga scored 12 goals in 21 league matches after arriving from Crawley in January.
Exeter City (26.0%), Chesterfield (24.1%), Salford City (22.1%) and Rotherham United (21.3%) complete the chasing pack. Rotherham have signed Paul Mullin from Wrexham, while Salford have brought in Luke Molyneux and Macaulay Langstaff.
Tranmere, and the number that should worry them
Tranmere Rovers are the team most likely to go down, with relegation showing up in 29.1% of simulations. Last season, they won eight of their first 24 matches, then lost 15 of the next 17. Opta’s expected points model had them in the drop zone on 47.0 expected points, six fewer than they actually finished with. Only Harrogate Town fared worse, on 43.8. Darrell Clarke has taken over and brought in Tom Ince and Will Vaulks.
Newport County are next at 21.5%. The two promoted sides are also in the danger zone, with Rochdale going down in 18.4% of simulations and York City in 15.0%. Their Opta ratings are still dragged down by time spent in the National League. Promoted clubs often do better than the numbers suggest: Barnet finished eighth last year, Oldham 10th.
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