Arsenal start with the edge
Opta ran 10,000 simulations of the 2026-27 Premier League season. Arsenal came out on top in 38% of them. The Gunners lifted the title in 2025-26, their first since 2004. Mikel Arteta is now chasing back-to-back crowns, something the club has not managed since 1934-35.
The stat that backs up that status is defensive. Arsenal conceded 27 goals last season. More tellingly, they gave up just 0.74 expected goals per game, the fourth-lowest figure recorded since 2012-13. Only three Manchester City seasons have been better.
One doubt remains. William Saliba returned from the World Cup with a back injury. Since making his debut in 2022, Arsenal have won 68.7% of their Premier League matches when the Frenchman plays. That drops to 47.6% without him.
Try it for $0.99.
City and Liverpool are waiting in the wings
Manchester City are next at 20.5%. Pep Guardiola has moved on, with Enzo Maresca taking over after 18 months at Chelsea. The club has splashed out £116m on Elliot Anderson. Erling Haaland, a three-time top scorer, can match the four-title record held by Thierry Henry and Mohamed Salah.
Liverpool complete the top three at 9.2%. Andoni Iraola arrives at Anfield and inherits an attacking rebuild. Mohamed Salah has left after nine seasons, having scored 191 goals and supplied 93 assists in the Premier League, both club records. Alexander Isak and Florian Wirtz need to step up after a disappointing first year.
Manchester United sit fourth on 6.2%. Michael Carrick took charge on 12 January. Since then, United have picked up 39 points from their last 17 matches, the best return in the league over that spell, three more than Arsenal.
The survival scrap is still a lottery
Hull City are the favourites for the drop at 38.7%, ahead of Ipswich (31.2%) and Coventry (27.9%). Sunderland follow on 25.9%, with Fulham and Leeds both on 23.4%. Only Arsenal (0.2%) and City (0.8%) go down in fewer than 2% of simulations.
One historical note does at least take the edge off those forecasts. In 34 Premier League seasons, none of the 16 promoted teams that collected at least eight points from their first five matches have gone straight back down. So the fixture list matters as much as the squad, and Coventry have landed the hardest opening run in the division.
Discover the rest of the FOOTBALL news on our website and mathodds app!
in your pocket.
Real-time notifications & alerts
Leave a Reply