West Ham lead a crowded field
The Championship returns on Friday night, with Wolves hosting Blackburn at Molineux, and the Opta supercomputer has already run the season 10,000 times to see where it might end. Its favourites are the three sides that dropped out of the Premier League in May. West Ham, back in the second tier for the first time in 14 years, top the projections for both the title (17.2%) and automatic promotion (29.4%), with Southampton, Middlesbrough, Wolves and Burnley close behind.
History offers West Ham some comfort. The last time they were relegated to this level, in 2011-12, they bounced straight back, though they needed the play-offs and a 2-1 win over Blackpool at Wembley to do it.
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A division that resists prediction
The numbers double as a warning. Across those 10,000 simulations, every one of the 24 clubs finished bottom at least 19 times, and every club won the title in at least 30. That volatility has burned the model before: Sheffield United were 41.1% favourites for promotion last season and finished 13th, 24 points adrift of the top two.
There is fresh incentive lower down, too. After 37 years of a four-team system, the play-offs now stretch to eighth place, so a wider band of clubs will have something to chase into May. Wolves, under new manager Cesar Peixoto, have re-signed Raul Jimenez, who scored 28 Premier League goals during his Fulham years, while Burnley have handed the reins to Nicky Hayen from Genk.
The relegation math
At the other end, Stoke carry the heaviest projected risk at 31.1%, a hangover from a run of 15 points in their final 20 games last season. Charlton (26.2%), Watford (25.3%) and Preston (25.0%) fill out the danger list. Watford’s case is the cautionary one: fourth on New Year’s Day, they then took just 16 points from 21 games, the third-worst run in the division.
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