Real Madrid – Monaco: the “Mbappé derby” lights up the Bernabéu 
On Tuesday night the Santiago Bernabéu hosts a symbolic, unprecedented clash: Kylian Mbappé faces his boyhood club Monaco in a match that could decide the Champions League picture. For Alvaro Arbeloa, newly installed on Madrid’s bench, it’s his first big European night. For Monaco, it’s survival.
Real Madrid: a fresh start — doubts still linger 
Xabi Alonso’s last European outing ended in a 2-1 defeat to Manchester City, weeks after a loss to Arsenal. Two defeats in three for a Real that, despite a perfect start in the competition, has lost its certainties. With 12 points from 18, the Madrilenians sit seventh overall — a spot that gives a direct ticket to the last 16 but nothing’s guaranteed in a season full of turbulence. Arbeloa has brought a bit of calm after the Cup humiliation against Albacete. On Saturday his Real beat Levante 2-0, pulling to within a point of Barça.
Third straight win at the Bernabéu. Twenty-six shots. A team playing with more bite, looser. But the defence is still fragile, and Monaco could try to exploit that.
Monaco: solid in Europe, fragile everywhere else 
Monaco arrive in Madrid with a paradox: fewer defeats than Real in this Champions League phase, but sitting in a much more precarious league position. Since their opening loss to Bruges, the Monegasques have been unbeaten in Europe: five games without defeat, including a 1-0 win over Galatasaray courtesy of Balogun. That victory pushed them up to 19th place, meaning a play-off spot without seeding. But the rest is worrying: three wins and three defeats in their last six across all competitions, including a brutal 3-1 home loss to Lorient on Friday. The history between the two clubs is thin but memorable: in 2004 Monaco knocked Real out in the quarter‑finals. A glorious memory — but distant.
Probable line-ups
Real Madrid:
Courtois ; Valverde, Asencio, Huijsen, Garcia ; Camavinga, Tchouameni, Bellingham ; Güler, Mbappé, Vinicius Jr
Monaco:
Kohn ; Vanderson, Kehrer, Dier, Henrique ; Akliouche, Teze, Zakaria, Golovin ; Balogun, Biereth
What to remember
- Real have won three straight at the Bernabéu.
- Monaco are unbeaten in their last five Champions League games.
- Monaco remain inconsistent in Ligue 1.
- Real have suffered two defeats in their last three European matches.
- Mbappé faces the club that brought him through.
Football Prediction Real Madrid vs Monaco
Real Madrid to win
Monaco can cause problems on the break, but they arrive weakened and too unstable to hold out for 90 minutes at the Bernabéu.
Real aren’t fully healed yet, but Arbeloa’s attacking firepower — Mbappé, Vinicius, Bellingham — should be enough to make the difference and lock down a top-eight spot.
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