New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons – Free NFL prediction and picks – November 23, 2025

Game context New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons

You can’t get a proper read on these Falcons while Kirk Cousins remains an enigma. At 37, thrown into last week’s game after Penix’s injury, he went 6/14 for 48 yards — more like waking up from anesthesia than restarting an NFL career. This time he has a full week of reps. Does that change anything? Maybe. Do we want to bet on it? Not really.

New Orleans come out of a bye with one of the league’s worst offensive records. Tyler Shough brings a bit of mobility but very little consistency. Without Kamara at 100%, the offense’s a limp soufflé that never rises. The Saints defend the pass well but struggle to stop the run, and Atlanta has at least one certainty: Bijan Robinson can carry the offense in a dome.

Keys to the matchup New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons vs

Atlanta absolutely must avoid putting Cousins in long third-down situations. New Orleans’ defense, even when patchy, knows how to punish static quarterbacks, and the 2024-2025 Kirk isn’t the surgical pocket passer he used to be. Drake London’s absence muddies things further: there’s almost no separation left in that receiver corps.

For the Saints, everything rests on Shough and his ability to stay clean. The Falcons’ pass defense is better than people think and has shown itself opportunistic. The problem? Atlanta’s run stop is catastrophic. Even without a fully fit Kamara, New Orleans should be able to manufacture at least functional drives.

Free Pick New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons

Result : Atlanta Falcons +2,5

In a game where both offenses look stuck in the same mud, the most reliable edge is on the ground. The Falcons run better. Atlanta is more explosive on the turf. And they’re up against a Saints attack that can’t grab a real advantage over anyone.

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