New Jersey Devils – Toronto Maple Leafs : The playoff fight 
This is basically a last-chance game in the East. The Devils sit 11 points back of the top eight, Toronto 9. Tonight’s loser could wave goodbye to any real playoff hopes. Pressure? Through the roof.
Will the Devils wake up at home? 
The Devils (30-29-2) sit near the bottom of the conference, but March has started better. Sheldon Keefe’s men (yes, against his former club!) come into this after two tidy wins over Florida (5-1) and St. Louis (3-1), enough to bury the bad spells against Pittsburgh, Buffalo and the Islanders.
They haven’t managed consecutive wins at Prudential Center since late November (14-13-2 at home), but their home defense has held up — just 2.76 goals allowed on average (9th best in the league). The attack is quieter (2.47 goals per game), but they usually control the play (29.4 shots for, 27.9 against).
The real strength is special teams. They’ve scored 31 power-play goals (20.3%) and they punish mistakes. Even weirder: they’ve netted 4 shorthanded goals and conceded none all season. Stefan Noesen should return mid-March to finish the long home stretch, while Zach MacEwen’s season is sadly over.
Toronto in trouble away from home 
It’s grim for the Leafs (27-24-10). Since the post-Olympic break they’ve been dreadful — four straight losses: Tampa Bay (4-2), Florida (5-1), Ottawa (5-2) and Philly (3-2 OT). The only recent bright spot was a 5-2 win over Edmonton, but Berube’s side has slid to 13th in the East.
Weak spot? The back end, especially on the road. Away from Ontario they’re 11-14-3 and get ripped apart (3.61 goals against per game — worst road mark in the East). They’ve conceded at least two goals in each of their last ten outings. Overall they score a bit (3.18 goals per game) but they leak at the back (3.43 GA).
On possession they’re on the back foot (27.5 shots for, 31.8 against). The power play keeps them ticking (28 PP goals, 19.6%) and the penalty kill is OK (83.1%). Injuries haven’t helped: Chris Tanev will miss at least a month, and Troy Stecher has been dropped in favor of Philippe Myers.
NHL Prediction Toronto Maple Leafs vs New Jersey Devils
New Jersey Devils to win
Sure, Toronto’s offense can light it up, but the Leafs give up far too many shots and goals (3.61 on the road is massive) to trust them away from home at this price. The Devils, meanwhile, have some momentum after a solid win, they’re at home and their underlying numbers — especially defensively — look healthier.
In this do-or-die scrap, New Jersey’s home defensive steadiness should punish the Leafs’ current generosity. I’m backing the home side to nick the win.
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