Match context: Miami Dolphins vs New Orleans Saints 
The Saints land in Florida in full crisis: an anemic offense (15 pts/game), Alvin Kamara out, and Tyler Shough racking up appearances without ever kick-starting the unit. The 24-10 loss to Atlanta exposed the same flaws: useless in the red zone, no threat on the ground, and a passing game without punch.
Miami, meanwhile, have two wins on the trot and an extra week to prep. They’re not fireworks, but the run game has found some teeth and the defense is getting meaner. Tua stays up-and-down, turnovers haunt him, but against a New Orleans defense that folds week after week, the edge in context and momentum is obvious.
Match keys: Miami Dolphins vs New Orleans Saints 
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Without Kamara the Saints lose their only real threat that can structure a drive. Shough now has to carry it behind a shaky line and a limp backfield. Expect Miami to load the box, blitz heavy, and force the rookie to throw under heat — a script that’s wrecked New Orleans multiple times this season.
For the Dolphins everything runs through the ground game. Washington gave up 169 rushing yards, and New Orleans allows 123 yards per game, often at the biggest moments. If Achane finds a rhythm early, Miami will dictate tempo, take pressure off Tua and make the Saints chase the scoreboard… with an offense that isn’t built to do that.
Free Pick Miami Dolphins vs New Orleans Saints
Result: Miami Dolphins -5,5
The Saints aren’t scoring, can’t run, and now they’re without their best player. The Dolphins aren’t an offensive juggernaut, but with added rest and a clearly favorable matchup on the ground, they’ve got a straight road to impose their pace.
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