Match context: Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans 
Big AFC South clash. Colts unbeaten at home (8-3, 6-0 in Indy). Texans have momentum after three straight wins. Indianapolis comes off a frustrating OT loss in Kansas City where the box score lied: yards, first downs and possession all favoured KC. Colts were kept alive by a handful of flashy plays, nothing more.
Houston held firm without C.J. Stroud, carried by a monstrous defense that smothered Buffalo (8 sacks, 3 forced turnovers). Stroud’s return raises the offensive ceiling, but this Texans team is built on defense — the NFL’s top unit by yards allowed, travels well and keeps everyone in the game.
The keys: Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans 
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Everything comes down to Jonathan Taylor vs Houston’s front seven. Colts are almost unbeatable when Taylor clears 80 yards. Stop him and Indy looks flimsy. Problem for Indy: Texans are elite vs the run — disciplined in the gaps, brutally physical at contact. If Taylor’s bottled up, Daniel Jones will have to take more shots downfield into an opportunistic secondary.
For the Texans, Stroud faces a Colts defense that yields yards but lives off turnovers. How well he protects the ball and punishes average coverages will decide a lot. Expect a cautious game plan too — lots of methodical drives to let the defense set the tone. In a tense divisional slog, every sack or 3-and-out swings the game.
Free Pick Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans
Result: Houston Texans +3,5
With Houston’s defense playing at an elite level and Indy’s attack so dependent on Taylor, that spread looks a touch generous. Texans can stop the run, limit explosive plays and stay within striking distance for 60 minutes — especially with Stroud back at the controls.
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