Texans – Bills : Thursday Night Football showdown 
Week 12 kicks off with a crucial playoff showdown: Buffalo travels to Houston in a game where every possession will matter. On one side, the Bills are building momentum. On the other, the Texans are without their franchise quarterback and have to reinvent their offense overnight.
Houston Texans : a scaled-back game plan 
Houston’s season has hit turbulence. Without C.J. Stroud, the offense changes radically: less verticality, less creativity and, above all, less margin for comebacks. Davis Mills is stepping in and has shown positives: 274 yards and an effective connection with Nico Collins last week, but the gap with Stroud remains huge, especially in attacking the deep part of the field.
Houston will have to rely on a heavier running game, quick passes and an offensive plan designed to avoid long-yardage situations. That approach can work… but it’s hard to sustain against a Bills defense that excels at pressure, pre-snap reads and disrupting passing angles.
Luckily for the Texans, the defense remains the heart of this team. Top of the league in total defense, allowing just 16.3 points per game, this group keeps Houston afloat week after week. Their front seven sets the tone, creates chaos and often produces short fields for the offense. At home, on a short week, this unit can clearly hold up. But without Stroud, the smallest offensive mistake can be costly.
The Texans stay solid at home (one game above .500) and have a +57 point differential. Their 16–13 win in Tennessee, secured by Matthew Wright’s buzzer field goal, shows they can survive tight games. But surviving against the Bills is another challenge.
Buffalo Bills : a defense built for this matchup 
The Bills arrive confident after their 44–32 win over Tampa Bay, a game where Josh Allen returned to form: 317 yards, 3 TDs, smooth distribution and, importantly, fewer unnecessary risks. The offense has grown more mature, prioritising efficiency and variety over individual exploits.
Tyrell Shavers shone with 90 yards and a touchdown, and Buffalo now shows real depth among its receivers, making opposing defenses harder to predict.
Defensively, the Bills remain exemplary. Their pass rush is disciplined, powerful and, above all, consistent. Returning to a simpler but well-executed defensive system allows them to limit big plays and force teams to play long. Against a backup quarterback, it’s a nightmare: stacked boxes, disguised pressures and constant forcing into difficult throws. Buffalo is built to capitalise on situations like that.
NFL Prediction Houston Texans vs Buffalo Bills
Bills to win
Without Stroud, Houston loses its most dangerous weapon and its offensive identity. Their defense can hold, but it’s hard to see Houston keeping up if Buffalo gets ahead. The Bills arrive with a stabilised offense, a defense ready to impose its will and the ability to control tempo.
The Bills should settle into the game, control possession and wear down Houston’s front over time.
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