Match context — Chicago Bears vs Cleveland Browns 
On paper the gap in records is massive. Still, this Browns–Bears game isn’t as straightforward as it looks. Cleveland rolls into Chicago with a ravaged roster, and yet Shedeur Sanders just produced by far his best NFL game… against a very soft Tennessee defense.
Chicago, meanwhile, remains a run-first team. The loss at Green Bay ended a nice streak, but it didn’t alter the identity Ben Johnson has installed: control the tempo, run the ball, and limit Caleb Williams’ mistakes. With brutal weather on the way (bitter cold and wind), that approach makes even more sense.
Key matchups: Chicago Bears vs Cleveland Browns 
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The first key is the run-on-run battle. The Bears love to run, but Cleveland remains one of the best run defenses, even over the last five weeks. If Chicago can’t get Swift and Monangai going, Williams will be forced to throw in the cold. Not ideal.
Across the ball, Sanders is still an enigma. He showed good stuff against the Titans, but his completion rate is very low for the season and he’s behind a catastrophic offensive line, weakened further by injuries. Against a Bears defense that’s solid without being elite, Cleveland can move in sequences, but it’ll struggle to do it consistently.
Weather, the teams’ profiles and the expected style all point to a tight, physical, choppy game with few truly clean possessions.
Free Pick Chicago Bears vs Cleveland Browns
Total points: Under 39,5 points
Hard to trust Chicago with a big spread against a strong run defense, and just as hard to back Cleveland offensively on the road in these conditions. The best angle is the game’s tempo.
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