Arsenal top the 10,000 simulations
Twenty-one point two percent. That is how often Arsenal, a club that has never lifted the Champions League, come out on top when Opta runs the 2026-27 edition 10,000 times. Bayern Munich sit right on their heels at 19.9%. Manchester City are third on 12%, the only other side to clear the 10% mark.
PSG are fourth. The back-to-back holders complete the three-peat in just 7.7% of simulations, and history is not on their side either. Real Madrid are the only club to have managed three in a row in the Champions League era. Ajax, Bayern and Real all did it when the tournament was still the European Cup.
Football returns to midweek on Tuesday 8 September. Nothing changes structurally: 36 teams, eight matchdays, the top eight straight through to the last 16, everyone from 9th to 24th thrown into a playoff. Madrid’s Metropolitano hosts the final on 5 June.
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A far nastier draw than the one Arteta sailed through
Arsenal arrive in good shape. Mikel Arteta’s side won all eight league-phase games last season, something nobody had done before under the new format, then lost the final to PSG on penalties.
The schedule is rougher this time. Opta still gives them a 93.1% chance of reaching the last 16. Bayern actually edge them on that measure, topping the league phase in 19.8% of runs and qualifying 93.5% of the time. Arsenal come out ahead on the title number because Opta’s Power Rankings currently rate them the best team on the planet.
Manchester City drew the hardest road of the contenders. Their last-16 probability sits at 86.3%. They have not passed the quarter-finals since the 2022-23 title.
Barca and Real are lurking with numbers that sting
Barcelona have gone eleven years without the trophy. The supercomputer gives them 7.0%. Real Madrid are down at 5.1%, a reading shaped by two seasons without a major trophy and no European quarter-final since 2024. Liverpool share that 5.1%, though they reach the final in 11.2% of runs.
Manchester United return after two years out. Title odds of 3.7%, quarter-final odds of 37.4%. Inter, beaten finalists twice in four seasons, land on 3.4%. Aston Villa close out the top 10 at 2.0%.
Every one of the 36 clubs won the thing at least once across the 10,000 runs. Shakhtar Donetsk, Slovan Bratislava and Sabah each did it exactly once.
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